So, what's your super power?

NCAA Outdoor Track & Field Championships

2010-06-14T12:24:00.000-07:00

Were on the television this weekend. The championships are actually 4 days of preliminary and final events, but Saturday's showing was a condensed bit of ~~highlights~~ the final day's events. It was exciting from start to finish. There were three dropped exchanges in the mens 4x100m relay (including favorite Texas A&M), the Oregon men finished a surprising 1-2-3 in the 1500m (it was a great pack and stretch run), and the Texas A&M 4x400m relay held off three attempts by Mississippi State to pass on the final curve to beat Florida by 2 to win the championship. If I find good videos of these events I will post them.

Conficker

2010-06-09T05:57:00.000-07:00

A wonderful piece by The Atlantic's Mark Bowden on the Conficker worm and the current nature of personal computer security threats.

Yes, but does it attract cougars?

2010-06-09T05:54:00.000-07:00

WSJ reports that many large cats at the New York City Zoo are attracted by Calvin Klein's Obsession for Men

Are Hybrids Good for the Environment?

2010-06-08T10:29:00.000-07:00

In a post of the same name a writer asks whether hybrids are good for the environment.

More specifically, the writer wonders whether purchasing a new, highly fuel efficient car (such as a hybrid) has any benefit over purchasing a used, moderately fuel efficient car. The writer's argument is that the production cost of a new car (in ecological terms) is so large that it reduce any ecologic benefit gained by the reduced fuel economy.

It's a valid question, but the solution is probably not as simple as the writer suggests. There are a few reasonable objections or follow-up questions to the initial proposition, but what gets me thinking is this: if all ecologically conscious consumers purchase used cars, are they really hurting themselves?

Let's not omit an obvious fact: the used car market is predicted by the new car market. This is so obvious it sounds dumb, but if the ecologically conscious consumers consume the larger portion of used cars, it will be the ecologically unconscious who consume the larger portion of new cars.

Carmarkers, who respond primarily to market demand, will produce more new cars that are likewise ecologically unconscious (since nobody wanted the fuel efficient cars) and the ecologically conscious consumers will find that when their fuel friendly used cars expire, all cars, both used and new, will be less fuel friendly than ever before.

Or so it seems to me.

Texas Rangers

2010-05-14T09:56:00.000-07:00

Have started the 2010 season well--off to a 20-15 start and currently in first place in the division.

One interesting statistic is that through 35 games the Rangers are 2nd in the American League in saves (12) and 2nd in blown saves (7), and in each category are 1 behind the AL leader. I'll take this as a sign that the starting pitching has been very good so far this season.

If you're finding you have nothing better to do

2010-05-14T07:52:00.000-07:00

Then join the Pigou Club.

But first, you may wish to know what is the Pigou Club? Here is the original charter, err, manifesto.

VMWare's Paul Maritz on finding humility

2010-05-14T07:42:00.000-07:00

Here, from Forbes.

Malcolm Gladwell

2010-05-11T13:32:00.000-07:00

in his own words

Certainly not all statements he makes here are true, but maybe a close-to-the-mark provocative statement is frequently more useful than a simple, true fact?

Deion Sanders, face and football

2010-03-11T10:54:00.000-08:00

Seth Wickersham of ESPN writes about Deion Sanders' influence as a mentor on multiple levels of football, asking whether Deion has anything to gain (especially anything of illicit interest), which has always been a relevant question where Sanders is involved, but I am left wondering whether those he influences have anything to gain. I don't think I want him coaching my boys in football:

A boy fumbles. It's the fourth quarter of a game that Sanders' youth team leads 38-12. So far, it's been a good afternoon, with Deion cajoling his players, hugging them after big plays, giving them hope. But then Shedeur, Sanders' youngest son, coughs it up on a sweep. As the boy walks to the sideline, Sanders gets in his face. "I give you the ball, and you fumble?" he says. He crouches to make eye contact, then explodes backward in disgust. "Are you crying? You're crying!"

Sanders doesn't coach criers. Cry on the field, you cry in life, he believes. Shedeur tries to walk away, but his father grabs him and pulls off his helmet. Face the crowd, he insists, so everyone sees those wet cheeks. The boy is humiliated, his teammates are scared, and other parents nervously watch. Is this discipline and structure, in the form of tough love? Or is this a well-intentioned coach with poor methods?

Sanders looks at his son and shakes his head. "Go back to your mama."

The boy walks off, leaving everyone to wonder.

The marginal utility of sin

2010-03-09T08:31:00.000-08:00

Garett Jones, macroeconomist at George Mason University, has an interesting Twitter feed (follow him @GarettJones) where he poses macroeconomic questions, which are frankly often difficult enough, within the 140-character limits of Twitter. This usually results in a sort of riddle and, like most riddles, thinking through his riddle is often more important than simply knowing the answer.

Yesterday he posted an interesting remark:

Some pundits are like preachers, telling the faithful to avoid all sin. Good advice as long as benefits of sin equal zero.

I don't know too much about pundits, but I know a few things about preachers and sin and I think this statement is fascinating. Indeed, I think it captures well what is so hard to grasp about religion and the religious faithful (or unfaithful), but to understand this it may be useful to step into economic theory.

I think Mr Jones' comments regarding sin are a matter of marginal utility. Marginal utility is simply the benefit (or loss) resulting from a change in production, but that definition may not make much sense on the surface. It's more important to understand what marginal utility tells us--whether we should produce more or less of a product.

To put this in concrete terms, if you are buying an LCD TV (a purchase of $1,000 to $2,000 for most people) then you will do some research. You may spend 5 or 6 hours online or in showrooms or watching friends' TVs to get an idea what you need or want to purchase. Then you may spend another 1 or 2 hours driving to different shops to find the best price. Then you may spend another 1 or 2 hours online trying to save another $10 or $20 off the price. But at some point you will quit researching because even if you save another $1, you've decided it just isn't worth your time.

That's marginal utility. You're making a decision regarding production (TV research) based on the marginal utility (+$20/hour decreasing to +$1/hour in my example.) When marginal utility = $0, you know to stop production (or stop wasting your time); that's how it works, more or less.

So what has this got to do with religion and sin?

Some pundits are like preachers, telling the faithful to avoid all sin. Good advice as long as benefits of sin equal zero.

What are the benefits of sin? Well, to the consumer (or the faithful, in this case), there is a calculation of marginal utility (marginal cost of being faithful?) whereby the faithful consumer decides whether the production of abstinence or the production of indulgence produces more utility. If abstinence results in +$0 utility and sin results in +$5 utility, choose sin (you've had your fair share of avoiding sin, since utility is $0, so go ahead and grab some more sin, which seems to still profit you.)

I think that's a fair model for the way most of the faithful (or unfaithful) consumers of religion think. Certainly, if any of the faithful consider avoidance of sin to always produce a benefit of +$0, these may think of the production of sin as their primary concern until it has +$0 utility. At that point should they consider avoidance of sin to be worthwhile.

Of course, thinking this way seems to neglect the benefits (utility) of avoiding sin and I think any good preacher should tell you there are many. But I guess that's a difference between the role of the economist and preacher. The economist tweets to describe what the model is (positive economics, what's actually happening) while the preacher tweets to tell you what the model should be (normative economics, what should be happening.)

As I get older, for some reason I find news reporting more fascinating

2010-03-08T11:24:00.000-08:00

It's not the news I like, however, as the news bores me as much as ever. It's the reporting that fascinates me. For example, take this recent story: Chile quake may have tipped Earth's axis.

Below the header is that this change in the Earth's Axis may have shortened the length of the day. Interest, to say the least, this seems. This is how the story starts:

(CNN) -- The massive earthquake that struck Chile on Saturday may have shifted Earth's axis and created shorter days, scientists at NASA say.

and this is the second sentence (which I've abruptly ended, for your sake):

The change is negligible, but permanent

Roughly 275 words follow, but why? If this change is truly negligible, which is to say so small or unimportant as to be not worth considering or insignificant then can't we just stop at that sentence? Or not write the story at all?

Are some losses gains?

2010-02-04T10:44:00.000-08:00

Probably so, but probably not when Mississippi votes to take a bath and sell the State-owned executive jet used to transport Governor Haley Barbour. I'm not necessarily in favor of state executives having executive jet transport, but does it seem a little short-sighted to take a $800,000 loss selling a jet when you only owe $400,000 on it?

With the current jet market, I'm not convinced this would sell for even $2.5m. Consider this: if Mississippi can sell now to gain $2m or keep it five more years and sell for $4m, which is a better choice? (Obviously this is a conjecture and neither alternative is guaranteed; also, I'm not necessarily against private transport for state executives either, and it seems to make sense for Mississippi recently.)

On the eBook industry, Kindle and iPad

2010-02-04T10:23:00.000-08:00

An interesting review by Steven Pearlstein of the Washington Post, with much of the focus appropriately on the Kindle's initiation and adaptation in this industry, but at least one comment makes me scratch my head:

Although Bezos & Co. were not pleased by the weekend's developments, they were hardly surprised. Amazon had already anticipated Apple's entry into the market by inviting software companies to begin developing applications for the Kindle that would allow it to compete directly with the more multifunctional iPad, particularly in the area of video games.

I'm no Kindle expert, but I've used one or two and wonder how, exactly, does Jeff Bezos expect Kindle users to play video games on the Kindle and which games exactly are we talking about?

On the iPad and mothers

2010-02-01T07:25:00.000-08:00

Not that all mothers are "inferior" users, but users like the writer's mother put a face on the many, many users who may find the iPad an enlightening interface.

Thoughts on the iPad "no flash" dilemma.

2010-02-01T06:18:00.000-08:00

I agree, it's not such a dilemma after all

The reality is this: users determine the market in all markets except those in which there is only one producer. Adobe is not a sole producer. If users choose the iPad, Adobe will adapt or be replaced by another producer.

Tony Kornheiser on grandchildren: "I don't think I'm going to be the great grandfather that other people have become."

2010-01-29T11:42:00.000-08:00

My feeling is: just give 'em (the grandchildren) some money and let them do what they want to do. 'Cause if I'm still active enough to do what I want to do, why would I want to do it with them?

A New York Times review of the iPad

2010-01-29T07:25:00.000-08:00

Until I saw the demo, I wondered why you'd want an iPad instead of a laptop. After all, the price is about the same...
Now, though, it looks like Apple really has created something new. Criticisms of "Like a laptop" and "a big iPod Touch" don't really do justice to the possibilities.

Source

Our present economy, explained in a way that most of us can understand

2010-01-28T19:51:00.000-08:00

That is if you don't find rap any more confusing than economic theory. Hayek and Keynes kinda make the whole East-Coast/West-Coast rap thing seem pretty trivial.

Tyler Cowen's reaction to the iPad

2010-01-28T15:00:00.000-08:00

My theory is that Apple wants to capture a chunk of the revenue in this nation's enormous textbook market -- high school, college, whatever. Why lug all those books around? The superior Apple graphics, colors, and fonts will support all of the textbook features which Kindle botches and destroys. Apple takes a chunk of the market revenue, of course, plus they sell the iPads and some AT&T contracts. There are lots of schoolkids in the world.

and later

The story here is one of new markets, not cannibalization or even competition.

Read the full content at Marginal Revolution.

On the iPad, a reaction by The New Republic

2010-01-28T10:56:00.000-08:00

A reaction by The New Republic, shared via NPR, written by Nicholas Carr:

The PC era ended yesterday morning at ten o'clock Pacific time, when Steve Jobs stepped onto a San Francisco stage to unveil the iPad, Apple's version of a tablet computer. Tablets have been kicking around for a decade, but consumers have always shunned them. And for good reason: They've been nerdy-looking smudge-magnets, limited by their cumbersome shape and their lack of a keyboard. Tablets were a solution to a problem no one had...

Read the entire text here

Arby's and the iPad

2010-01-27T11:16:00.000-08:00

Today I grabbed lunch from Arby's. Not healthy food, for sure, but food I like in certain circumstances. They have a unique product in their roast beef sandwich and although the market share of roast beef sandwiches is probably a small portion of fast food sales, I imagine the typical Arby's consumer is fairly faithful. What I realized, however, is that I don't purchase the sandwich when I choose Arby's. I purchase the sauces.

I don't suppose that the Horsey Sauce and Arby's Sauce are exceptionally remarkable--one is a mayonnaise-horseradish blend and the other a mild barbecue sauce--but I certainly would not choose the Arby's product without them. Maybe that choice seems a bit superficial, but I think that's an interesting circumstance and I imagine we make choices like this on a surprisingly regular basis. I was thinking through this and tried to consider which products I may have purchased for similar reasons and I come with two similar examples that appear to be opposite: the iPod and the iPhone.

The iPod is certainly one of the most successful consumer electronic devices of the past 20 years, but I'm not sure anyone buys the iPod because they're wowed by a superior product. Certainly, there are some great advantages to the iPod as a piece of hardware, but it seems that we buy the iPod because it functions with iTunes. Ironically, iTunes is free. iTunes is also rather simple and doesn't appear at face value to be worth purchasing an expensive piece of hardware to coordinate your music and video, but turn that question around and answer for yourself: would you buy an iPod if it would not work with iTunes? Certainly there are competitor products that (without iTunes) are superior or at least equally viable.

The iPhone is probably the most successful electronic device ever (or I expect it will become such), however it seems to have achieved success in the opposite manner. It seems that the device drives the complimentary products. Some of the functions and applications of the iPhone make it an entirely desirable device, but I don't think I would ever buy an iPhone simply because I can download games or use the address book in a certain manner. I may choose to buy an iPhone over another smartphone because of an option like these, but I'm not jumping from a standard mobile device to the iPhone for this reason. Then again, the iPhone stands out in part because you must buy the device to get the complimentary software. Maybe this distinction is not as great as it may seem; maybe I'm imagining it all.

Now to the iPad, which Apple has today released. The discussion in the coming weeks will be whether anything comes from this product as a "third device" or whether it flops as many electronic devices certainly have. What exactly will the iPad do? Why should I want to purchase an iPad?

Well, Apple has unveiled this product and what do we think? From the New York Times live blogging of the event:

You get the feeling that the iPad is creating and killing categories at the same time. It is a remarkably ambitious project in terms of all the things — photos, games, video and e-mail — that it is attempting to grab market share in.

One of the weird things about the presentation is how it is really all about the software. The gadget itself is transparent, a window into software. There is really only a single mechanical button on the device, the “on” button. The rest is all fingers interacting directly with software.

This makes sense for Apple. We don't need another electronic device. The iPad will fail if it's an electronic device only. We don't need a new end product. We've got enough expensive crap already and we don't need any more expensive crap. What we need is a new medium. We need something to replace newsprint. We need to know that what we do and how we do it are insufficient. We need to be shown how insufficient our methods have become and we need to be shown how satisfactory are the new methods this product allows. We need to want what we've forgotten to want. If the iPad shows us that, it will be revolutionary and entirely successful.

Want to read your books in a better way? A better way than the Kindle? Apple has called out Amazon to a duel, and this will be interesting, but that's not the only purpose for the iPad. I don't think it can stand on that foot only. Will it be a new gaming platform? Will Nintendo (DS) and Sony (PSP) be called to the duel? Can you dock this in your car and navigate to your destination? Will Garmin be called to the duel?

But Apple isn't simply dueling with the iPad. Apple is also partnering. What will be the future of print media? We won't likely see newsprint editions of the New York Times in 10 years. We also won't see it on Amazon's Kindle. Will we all be reading our newspapers on iPads and similar devices in 2020? Maybe.

I'll watch and see what happens and see if any of the options have that certain flavor that tells me there is no other way to satisfy my desire. Horsey Sauce anyone?

Ummm...

2009-04-22T15:59:00.000-07:00

Apparently the apparel company has apologized. How about the team apologizing? Oh, that's right. Bad franchises make bad decisions; an apology might be a step in the right direction.

There are some things that Facebook does well

2009-04-13T08:39:00.000-07:00

How else could I witness this?

Does this look like the face of a guy who is glad he was traded?

2009-04-13T05:23:00.001-07:00

Welcome to Chicago; the NFL is business. (By the way, Cutler did ask to be traded. Maybe he was really bluffing? Or he thought he was...)

I've never watched The Wire

2009-03-24T20:17:00.001-07:00

so I can't comment about it, but this last post in a series of 9 on "real thugs" watching a show about "real thugs" is overwhelmingly interesting.

Someday Sudhir Venkatesh will win a Nobel, I think, though maybe this is a long shot as his field doesn't seem to fit the prize fields.

So maybe he won't, but I do think that he has both an unusual eye for the story and an unusual perspective (these may be the same) on what it means to be white or black in America today. I'm currently enjoying his Off the Books, though at times it reads a bit like thesis research.

What does the man on the street think about the bonuses to AIG executives?

2009-03-24T20:06:00.001-07:00

You might be surprised, at least depending on which man on the street you ask.

You have to be real careful when you mess with folks at the top, because when the war is over, you’ll need these guys real quick. Ninety-nine percent of people just doing what they’re told — you couldn’t find half a brain among all of them. But the ones with the brains — don’t let them go.

What's wrong with the picture? Here is what The Thugz see that the public so often misses. Doesn't look like we're doing anything that is going to help the struggling banks.

I was able to use the word incontrovertible in conversation yesterday

2009-03-09T05:33:00.000-07:00

and that was a pretty fun moment, but I'm not sure that the word is properly used in its most common context: as incontrovertible evidence. I'm not sure evidence should be disputed as easily as conclusions; at least, if evidence is factual and conclusions are logical, you should be discussing the logic and not the fact. The latter seems to make conclusions de facto.

No snickering... well, maybe just a little

2009-01-24T07:33:00.001-08:00

Worth reading: No snickering

Flight 1549

2009-01-22T14:12:00.001-08:00

I'm sure there will be more information to come in the future weeks regarding US Airways Flight 1549 and I'm sure I will have other reflections, but a few things stick out and are worth reading at present.

First, make sure you take a look at this visualization of the flight path based on the ATC reports available:

The path taken by the aircraft is quite remarkable--as is the entire incident--but the captains choice to not head back to LaGuardia and head for the Hudson (and the ability to miss all bridges, towers, transmission lines, helicopters, boats, and--not to mention additional geese--any other substantial traffic) is something that we may not see easily replicated.

Some of the events that occurred are the result of good training and planning (when able) as well as good engineering of the aircraft. [Read this great Wall Street Journal article for more background on the events from the perspective of aircraft systems and engineering.]

But not every result in this event came so because of skill or planning or even the right amount of decision-making. Even if you don't agree with John Piper's proclamation of God's planning amidst our lack of circumstantial control, it is worth pondering that our last President's tenure was marked and will be remembered by the unfortunate events related to 4 aircraft that were uncontrolled and unplanned by him. Will this President's tenure be marked and remembered by an omen of fortune involving an aircraft that was likewise outside the scope of his planning and control?

A white man's perspective on the celebration of the birth of Martin Luther King, Jr

2009-01-20T05:30:00.000-08:00

(I wrote this yesterday, for yesterday, but post a day late, on the day of the inauguration of America's first black President)

Last night Jen and I were discussing where Martin Luther King, Jr falls in the scope of America’s most important historical figures. Without a doubt he is easily within the top-50. Most of our discussion was actually about what “historically important” means; while I maintain that Elvis’ contributions to American history are significant in scope, she maintains that they are by no means significant contributions. Nevertheless, Dr King fits all such criteria and we decided that the conversation is whether he is a top-10 or top-25 American historical figure.

I’m not sure where he fits and I won’t propose such (though suggestions are welcome), but what interests me most is how often this day is maligned. I understand that historically there has been much opposition to this day being an official American holiday (marked as a paid holiday for federal employees); many prominent politicians have opposed the holiday. Also, it is unique among holidays in that it celebrates someone who has never held political office and is the most recent of the national holidays.

I am young, so I've missed the historical arguments. In my memory, it has always been a holiday, though really the day began to be officially recognized in 1986. I know that the past discussions are not dismissed simply because this observation has been official for now over 20 years, but what confounds me is how people speak about the holiday. Just last week I heard in conversation, “If you only understood how much it means to them.” This morning I overheard someone joking on the phone with a client, “aren’t you taking the day off?” (as though there is hidden merit to working on this day).

Maybe I misunderstand the historical record, but I take Dr King’s work as that of uniting people across and despite of differences. His work was to represent and profit the rights of the oppressed and marginalized black society, but not for the purpose of nationalizing these communities into national prominence. To me, Dr King represents freedom and good will towards all men, not just black men, and his primary goal was that black men--and all men--would have a common standing among one another.

Certainly, his efforts have not yet been fully rewarded. After the recent Presidential election, in which America elected her first black President, many people reacted in what seems to me a very un-King-ly way. “We won!” or “we lost” or "what are they going to do to this country" may have been words spoken or heard depending on whether you are black or conservative; such Us-Them speech abounds today despite Dr King's efforts.

“We” too often speak poorly of “them”, whoever “they” may be, speaking with contempt or disdain or disgust but mostly I think with ignorance and bias. “We” too often don’t want to be reconciled with “them”. “We” don’t want “them” to have what “we” have. Or "we" want what "they" have and had and want to lord it over "them" just as "they" have for so long. “We” don’t want “them” to live near or threaten “our” kids. "We" don't want to be like "them" or "them" like "us".

This is what Dr King wanted us (all) to be rid of. I’m glad (and hope to grow in my appreciation) of what he did to unite the black communities in America against the injustices they’ve faced. More so I’m glad that his goal was not to unite “them” in order to gain the position of “us”, but to unite them with us so that we may be together a better and more responsible community.

We still have a long way to go. Yesterday I worked on the observation of the birth of Martin Luther King, Jr, not out of disrespect or because it wasn't a holiday for my organization, because the people in my office work (my company has 2 employees split into different offices). I worked as a sign of solidarity towards them.

But I look forward to the time when we all observe this day for the purpose of working towards and celebrating many of the same goals that this man sought after. I think these are good goals and I’m glad they’re goals for all of us and not just some of them.

I have a dream that one day this nation will rise up and live out the true meaning of its creed: 'We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal.'

I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character.

I have a dream that one day on the red hills of Georgia the sons of former slaves and the sons of former slave owners will be able to sit down together at a table of brotherhood.

Sometimes altruism is supplanted by the all-true-isms

2009-01-16T17:21:00.000-08:00

Me: You should take those cookies to your grandmother when you go to visit her tonight. She'll enjoy that.
Jen: I ate the last two...
Me: The last two? Then Vicki must have had two today... because I took the other four to work this morning.

The Challenge

2009-01-15T19:21:00.000-08:00

During 2008 I challenged myself to read 30 books during the year. This number was somewhat arbitrary, but since I was turning 30 and wanted a significant challenge to myself, I chose the relatively difficult rate of 2.5 books per month.

I didn’t make it, but I enjoyed the experience. And I don’t think it’s inappropriate to knowingly set the bar high. When I was 26 I challenged myself to get in shape by committing to run a marathon. Granted, I was a runner previously, but at that time I was not in shape and had never run that far. And it worked out, though I was 27 by the time I raced the 26 miles.

So, last year I failed my resolution, though not too miserably. I didn’t actually commit to this at New Year’s, though it was early enough to count for the year. And I have enjoyed reading much more, though my discipline of reading regularly is not yet transformed. But I completed 12 books and started but have not finished another 11. I expect to finish these and more during the current year, with a slight twist on last year's pledge.

Without creating a challenge to myself this year, except to continue learning and enjoy the learning, I look forward to completing 12 new books this year (1 per month) while completing or re-reading 12 books (owned and unread also may count here, 1 per month), and listening to 12 new albums of music as well. For the latter, I have some ideas (as I intend to rely heavily upon un-sampled portions of Rolling Stone’s Top lists) but am very open to recommendations for any new item, book or music. If you have any suggestions, please provide them.

(So I guess, having set specific goals above, that this is a sort of challenge for 2009... )

Explaining the current financial crisis in a way my grandfather could never understand

2008-11-12T18:35:00.001-08:00

Both of my grandfathers passed away in the 1990s before the dot.com and y2k bubbles burst, each to their own effects, and while alive each man was quite endearing in their own way. One of these grandfathers was a very clever man, a carpenter by trade, but a man who never assumed he knew anything more than you, unless it was how to pull a prank. He lived most of his life in South Arkansas and North Louisiana and when my family lived in a South-Dallas suburb he often would spend the afternoons of his visits in a lawn chair beside the garage, watching airliners enroute to land at Dallas Fort Worth International Airport.

Fortunately, an aircraft passed directly overhead every few minutes during the late afternoon hours and he would exclaim to me his wonder at how such a mass of aluminum and steel could fly through the air so gracefully and at such great speed.

Now I do know something about aircraft and how they fly but I must be honest and admit that I don't know very much about banking and the financial markets. And I don't think my grandfather, as aware of the human intent as he was, knew much more about banking than I. That said, I think if I could explain to my grandfather why an airplane doesn't crash, I think I could explain to him why a bank does.

As I again admit that I know little about banking, I think certain common assumptions and assertions are absolutely false. Any presumption that the current crisis is a result of the current President's lack of foresight or an evil machination of the Democratic party is at least ill thought and probably without good intent. What must we must remind ourselves is that banks don't simply hold money--banks make money by loaning your money out and having it repaid to them at a higher rate of interest than they pay you to hold it. Often banks are discussed as static in nature but are quite mobile--much like an airplane.

In flight, lift is produced by wings and propels the aircraft, my grandfather could regurgitate, but he struggled to grasp how tens of thousands of pounds of steel and aluminum could fly through the air in a manner that appears so graceful and gentle when all the while gravity was calling. And that's the secret of flying, for airplanes at least, not that gravity is defied but instead deferred.

Gravity's call is undeniable, but if the lift (and certain other physical properties) coordinate in such a way as to produce a rate of vertical propulsion equal to the rate of call by gravity then an aircraft may seem to float upon the air. So long as this relationship is balanced an aircraft may fly along for a seemingly endless period.

Most aircraft crashes are considered "controlled flight into terrain" (CFIT) and may occur when terrain is obscured by cloud or fog or when the climb or descent are not at the appropriate rate. In this case, gravity's call is often too great for the task at hand and the balance is not negotiated properly. This may seem analogous to some types of business failure, however this does not seem to fit the banking crisis.

And that sort of accident is not what people fear. What people fear is what my grandfather could not put to rest--what if lift all-of-a-sudden stopped? A slight imbalance between lift and gravity is not a big problem. This simply results in a climb or descent which, though potentially dangerous near the ground, is of little concern at 30,000 feet. This may be similar to normal business cycles during which profit may be greater or less than expected.

What most people fear--irrationally in most regards, I should add--is the stall, when lift is suddenly lost to such an extent that the immediate reaction by the aircraft is not descent but freefall. To varying degrees this situation is recoverable. For the Boeing 737, flying overhead at 33,000 feet and weighing roughly 130,000 lbs loaded up (not that weight has anything to do with lift, I just added that for drama), this situation is more dramatic.

Yet, this situation is not very likely. It could be the case that ice has accumulated along the wings such that airflow (and lift) is disturbed or a condition called clear-air turbulence (turbulence unassociated with normal weather phenomena) changes the flight conditions or, even worse, structural failure separates a wing. Any of these situations is as hazardous as it is unlikely, but the hazard is what sticks in peoples' minds and why many passengers are afraid of flying. The reality is that these situations, where the balance between lift and gravity is suddenly and tumultuously unraveled, is as unlikely as your bank failing.

Now here we are back at the beginning. How can a bank simply fail? How can so many bank executives not have known what they were doing? How can my bank with $300,000,000 in deposits be hopelessly in debt and insolvent? Debt, like gravity, is a harsh mistress and there seem to be times when a business cycle--though carefully planned in every regard--is disrupted much like an aircraft in sudden stall.

In that rare and unfortunate case it seems all that can be done is sit back and watch the bank fall like 130,000 lbs of steel and aluminum, out of the sky.

Would you wager on the existence of God?

2008-11-11T10:20:00.000-08:00

That's whats being offered by a bookkeeper in the UK. The current odds are 4-1, which I understand means that there is an 80% chance that God exists. Although, the terms of the bet are very specific and payout is only made if, by scientific observation, God can be proved to exist.

That seems somewhat difficult and is probably why odds have dropped from 33-1 to the current 4-1. Still, 80% that God exists seems pretty good if you're an objective observer, but maybe someone with a better understanding of the philosophy of science can explain whether it is possible that an existence presumed to be immaterial or supernatural can be observed and proven by material and natural means.

Blogger Greg Mankiw observes this problem as he quotes author Robert Pirsig:

After a while he says, "Do you believe in ghosts?"

"No," I say.

"Why not?"

"Because they are un-sci-en-ti-fic."

The way I say this makes John smile. "They contain no matter," I continue, "and have no energy and therefore, according to the laws of science, do not exist except in people’s minds."

The whiskey, the fatigue and the wind in the trees start mixing in my mind. "Of course," I add, "the laws of science contain no matter and have no energy either and therefore do not exist except in people’s minds. It’s best to be completely scientific about the whole thing and refuse to believe in either ghosts or the laws of science. That way you’re safe. That doesn’t leave you very much to believe in, but that’s scientific too."

This is quite like the dilemma presented by Greg Bahnsen in his debate with Gordon Stein some years ago. Of course, neither Bahnsen nor Stein absolutely solved this issue--at least from a material perspective. But still, it seems that the existence of God is probably a safe bet, so long as you're not actually placing it.

It's fall, which means back to school and football

2008-10-27T05:56:00.000-07:00

So why wouldn't you want to read about geeks arguing about football? No, not that argument. A more basic argument: should we be playing it? Rather, should UNC-Charlotte begin playing college football? Greg Mankiw, without offering a yes or no, puts interesting insight into the dilemma. And, as always, the students begin to weigh in.

Because I had been asked to update

2008-10-21T19:23:00.001-07:00

And, well, maybe to indicate that I still exist, here is the updated status of my quest to read 30 books during 2008.

Read:
Blink (Malcolm Gladwell)
The bottom billion (Paul Collier)
Step by step: Divine guidance for ordinary Christians (James Petty)
The fellowship of the ring (JRR Tolkien)
Prince Caspian (CS Lewis)
HDR affordable seniors housing handbook (trade publication)
Fields of the fatherless (Tom Davis)
The two towers (JRR Tolkien)
Secrets of the baby whisperer (Traci Hogg)
The end of poverty (Jeffrey Sachs)
The return of the king (JRR Tolkien)

Currently Reading:
The Bible (ESV)
Transit maps of the world (Mark Ovenden)
Excel 2007 data analysis and business modeling (Wayne Winston)
Microeconomics and behavior (Robert Frank)
The wealth of nations (Adam Smith)
I'm chocolate, you're vanilla (Marguerite White)
Velvet Elvis (Rob Bell)
Mere discipleship (Lee Camp)
Third ways (Allan Carlson)

I've been told that I should count the Lord of the Rings trilogy as one book since that is the author's intent. Too bad, I'll count it as three. And there are several books that I won't likely finish, but that's probably okay even though I want to finish 30 by New Year's Day. It's hard to say if I'll come close to making the goal. I have a lot ground to make up but the holidays loom ahead and this is often good reading time. Also, the days are growing shorter and that should help.

I've also got at least 5 books on the shelf that I'd like to start reading but aren't listed here. (Obviously I need to finish some of these first.) But I'm happy to report that only one book has been so hideous that I was forced to put it down without reading it.

Also, I've adopted a new principle: every fall I intend to purchase and read a book written by a newly-minted Nobel Laureate. This year's book:

Development, geography, and economic theory (Paul Krugman)

In that vein I also purchased Off the books: The underground economy of the urban poor (Sudhir Venkatesh). I think it's highly likely that this man may win the prize for his research into the urban poor society.

What would another governance system look like?

2008-10-20T18:28:00.000-07:00

I spent part of Sunday discussing with my favorite spouse some of the differences between Socialism and Capitalism. It wasn't a long discussion because we don't have as much knowledge about the topics as we do capacity for opinion, but it led me to wonder later what an American Socialist state might look like.

I decided that it would look a lot like large government institutions such as the state hospital where I worked for several years. This may not be the case but I think it would be fair to imagine more of this type of governance. So what does that mean to you and me? I think more of things like this: wonderful ideas with lifeless application.

Any [state] resident who stays and works in the state for five years after graduation will have their state income tax for that time period returned in the form of a down payment or closing costs on their first house. For a single person, that could be up to $10,000, and for a married couple, it could be up to $15,000...

To participate, students have to register with the [Agency] no later than the 60th day after college graduation or day of degree completion. Those who have registered then have until 90 days after their fifth state income tax return is due to apply...

We have learned through observation that socialism can destroy the incentives necessary for the production of goods. Do you think someone somewhere within this organization has lost the incentive to produce goods worthy of consumption?

If you don't understand the financial crisis

2008-10-20T10:40:00.000-07:00

then you aren't alone. But these guys help explain it. (With updates).

[If you did not read the links in order, read #2 then #3 then #1. If you did read them in order, go back and read #1 after you are sufficiently comfortable with what you understand about the explanation. It is interesting that while 80% of people think that "weak" regulation is part of the cause, support for and against regulation is unchanged.]

The untold story of the recent Olympics

2008-10-20T10:34:00.000-07:00

Iss really not as dramatic as the title suggests, but I can't quit wondering that if Michael Phelps' diet consists of 12,000 calories per day, how much does that increase his risk of stomach and digestive-tract -related diseases? It is entirely likely that his diet will be elevated only for a short number of years (maybe significantly elevated from 16 to 32 but only this peak level for 8 to 10 years?) but during that time he will have eaten significantly more food than the average person of his size. It is entirely possible (since 12,000 is probably 3-4 time as much as the average American eats in a day) that by age 30 he has eaten as much food as most 50- and many 60-year old men. That can't be good, can it?

Is it okay to prefer things that are like you?

2008-10-20T10:30:00.000-07:00

What about when those things are like you because they have the same color skin?

Like when watching tv (Part II) or when voting.

On Usain Bolt

2008-08-22T08:16:00.000-07:00

We haven't seen much of the Olympics (because we have poor television reception) and I'm partial to such feats (because I participated in Track & Field) but I think the story of the games, even more than Michael Phleps, has to be Usain Bolt. The Steves at Freakonomics capture the amazement of his accomplishments and recommend (as do I) this graphical representation of the statisitical significance of his second feat--the 200m WR.

On the economic views of the modern Democrat party

2008-08-21T09:08:00.000-07:00

A must-read, these 8 pages written by David Leonhardt explain well and fairly neutrally much about the present state of the American economy and the leading Democrat's plan to solve its problems. Though it is apparent he is like-minded with the foundations of Obama's plan, he is level-headed and I think even if you're aren't crazy enough to think this is entertaining (because, who really enjoys economics?) I think you'll appreciate the discussion.

[Commentary]

Everyone wants to help the poor

2008-07-29T10:17:00.000-07:00

Or, at least most of us would like to think that. Here are two interesting (and relatively short) readings on how maybe we can help better than we have been. (1, 2)

What else should we expect?

2008-07-28T19:24:00.000-07:00

"These projected deficits are both manageable and temporary if spending is kept in check, the tax burden remains low and the economy continues to grow," OMB said in its Mid-Session Review of the federal budget.

How can that be any good way to think? (And, how can that be even slightly reasonable?) I don't know, but can we really blame consumers for low credit, high debt-to-asset ratio, and the outrageous idea that it’s ok to walk away from a pledge to debt when it hurts to deliver the goods? Maybe not, if all that has been exampled before them is counter to the principles of credibility, patience, and fidelity.

“Pay yourself first” is advice often given by financial counselors and often practiced when consumers spend large sums on depreciable goods instead of paying down outstanding debts, mortgage owners walk away to preserve their remaining wealth, business leaders ousted by their failing companies seem to bleed green when everyone else bleeds red, investment banks rake in profits for seemingly countless quarters before finding out all their assets are really debts for which they’ve previously spent any commodity, and when the government fails not at paying its own interests while failing considerably in fulfilling prior promises.

What else really should we expect if the OMB itself acts this way?

[It looks now like the Wall Street Journal removed the quote at top]

Incentives... are everywhere?

2008-07-26T09:19:00.000-07:00

Economists believe that every action is a transaction and therefore multiple opportunities and mechanisms to change behavior exist. Sometimes there is more than one means to the same end and I guess that is not a bad thing.

Two great articles worth reading

2008-07-25T11:01:00.000-07:00

The first is very funny and mostly true.

The second, What if the candidates pandered to economists? is even better. I probably agree with six of his eight arguments, all of which feel very liberal (maybe even Anti-American?), which is surprising given the the writer is an extremely conservative Harvard professor who has served as adviser to one Republican President and one Republican candidate.

On the road again

2008-06-20T05:55:00.001-07:00

Yesterday was the first day commuting to work on the new bike. It was much easier than I thought it would be. The ride is just under 4.5 miles each way and it took only about 20 minutes to get to work. Actually it took more time to pack my bag and then unpack and change at work than to actually ride the commute. I suppose I'll have to put photos up later, but I am very much enjoying (so far) the ability to ride to work. It will take about 200 rides for the costs and gas-savings to break even, and my carbon output while on the bike is not insignificant (it's not a totally-green affair), but yesterday I exercised for about 45 minutes and it only took only about 20 minutes of real time (since my commute by car is about 12-15 minutes). And since I committed to run a marathon in January with friends, this is a good way to help get in shape.

What I've been reading

2008-06-13T19:00:00.001-07:00

It's pretty good so far. I don't yet believe that his assertion is true, but to be fair, I've just started the book. But I do like paragraphs like this:

Progress is hard enough to achieve in the world without being perceived as a danger. One of the ironies of the recent success of India and China is the fear that has engulfed the United States that success in these two countries comes at the expense of the United States. These fears are fundamentally wrong, and even worse, dangerous. They are wrong because the world is not a zero-sum struggle, but is rather a positive-sum opportunity in which improving technologies and skills can raise living standards around the world. Not only are the Indian IT workers providing valuable goods and services to United States consumers, but they are also sitting at terminals with Dell computers, using Microsoft and SAP software, Cisco routers, and dozens of other pieces of empowering technology imported from the developed countries. As India's technology grows, its consumers opt for a growing array of US and European goods and services for their homes and businesses.

Not every transaction can be a positive-sum transaction, which is why diversified risk is still risk (as we have know realized, in every sense of that word, from the mortgage banking breakdown) and why I doubt the feasibility of the author's prediction that world poverty can be wiped out by 2025, but it is refreshing to read something thoughtful and optimistic in light of the politically-motivated but thoughtless and depressing diatribe so frequently heard during the election season.

Why early adoption is not necessarily good, a micahnomics primer

2008-06-10T19:00:00.000-07:00

A few years back Jen and I often spoke of thinking in terms of "micahnomics" when making normal decisions. I pulled this term from our friend Shifty and his practice of "shiftynomics", though he doesn't readily discuss this (probably because the description is diminutive or demeaning or both) and he now readily refers to "tiggernomics", but I digress.

Shiftynomics, which may be generally described by the rule "why spend your money when you can spend someone else's?", is a theory I observed enacted (very well) when Shifty was a roommate of mine after college. In those days he routinely paid his portion of the bills well after due dates and often ate more than his portion of the foodstuffs. Now he is a property manager of some 200 rental properties and lives the shiftynomic dream--making money directly from the monies of others.

Realizing the potential of certain simple principles Shifty practiced I then began forming the rudiments of micahnomic theory, which may now be described by the rule "why spend your money now when you can spend it later?"

Now I'm sure there are real, older, and more appropriate names for these practices, but I (and quite a few within my nearer circles) will likely continue to describe these practices as shiftynomics and micahnomics and certainly none will be surprised to see that I am a late adopter (of technology for example) because it is simply good micahnomics.

Take the iPhone as an example. This week we witness the unveiling of the 3rd-generation iPhone just 1 year following the unveiling of the first iPhone. And what of note has happened in this first year? Well, besides rolling out 2 significant model changes, a near 70% reduction in retail price. Or, put it this way: if you had waited 1 year to purchase your iPhone, what would you gain? A product significantly better at 1/3 the asking price and a reduction in phone plan charges of at least $250, or roughly $650 pre-tax dollars before considering the deficiency of your product and how you would adjust those dollars spent for present value. Even if you had invested them in something other than gold or oil (normally a good idea) you would have saved about $300 and ended up with a more desirable purchase.

Or, as Apple puts it: Twice as Fast. Half the Price. What they don't say is Did you really think that owning one year could cost so much?

Or you may consider your local television as a candidate to not adopt early. Had you purchased a flat-panel LCD, plasma, or death-ray tv 5 or 6 years ago when they were first available you would also have paid 3 or 4 times the current value of your tube while getting performance and options that likely do not par what is standard now.

Or you could consider micahnomic principles in the purchase of a new car, whether postponing the actual purchase or postponing the purchase of certain desirable options until a later vehicle. I remember hearing that saving $5000 in options on a car purchased every five years... well, let's just say that turns out to about $50,000 in 25 years if you only count the interest from the lost investment. If you financed that sunroof and navigation system then you may as well round up to a fat $75,000 or so.

What I'm saying is... well, I don't know exactly. But I think it would be fair to conclude that patience, though virtuous, has more direct benefits. And satisfaction (not even beginning to discuss the psychological merits of delayed gratification) can have a fiscal benefit even if it is primarily fruit of a well-adjusted spirit. I'm sure there are many better things that have been said about ideas like these by moral philosophers as profound and well-spoken as Solomon and Adam Smith, but I think it would still be fair to say that late adoption can be a good (if not codgery) practice and fine micahnomic principle.

Indeed, why should you pay for it now when you can pay for it later? (If only it were as easy to agree in practice with what you agree in principle).

What's been going on

2008-05-28T19:36:00.000-07:00

Well, not a lot of blogging or reading, that's for sure.

Maybe I'll catch up soon, or maybe I'll reduce my subscriptions. I haven't even had time to read the more enjoyably ironic articles like this from the NYT.

But we have had some good days recently. For the most part we survived the deluge. We helped marry our long-time friend Captain JLowe, DO, witnessed a sub-8:00 beermile (previously thought to be impossible by some), witnessed Noel taste--and not like--homemade play-doh, attended RADIOHEAD live, and completed 7 years of marriage. Not a bad course of events, and I got a good new book to add to my long list of things to read this year. And Noel decided that The Incredibles is now his favorite show and he and Jen have watched it three times in twenty-four hours.

That's not really a good way to start writing again. What I should say is that I've been thinking I need a new vehicle for the daily commute to work. One which is much less dependent on the inelasticly-demanded, fickle-priced, and environmentally-consequential fossil fuels. After musing over the most reasonable alternatives I think what I may pursue is this.

FYI

2008-05-14T07:49:00.000-07:00

What better way to end my month-long hiatus than by posting this from the Shreveport office of the National Weather Service:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
752 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

...THIRD GREATEST 24 HOUR RAINFALL ON RECORD IN SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA WITH MORE RAINFALL TO ARRIVE...

AS OF 750 AM THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING OF MAY 14 OF 2008...THE SHREVEPORT REGIONAL AIRPORT HAS TALLIED 9.37 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD SINCE 750 AM TUESDAY MORNING OF MAY 13.

THIS REPRESENTS THE THIRD HIGHEST 24 HOUR TOTAL RAINFALL ON RECORD. WHAT IS MORE AMAZING...IF NOT TROUBLING...IS HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS ONGOING WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT SHREVEPORT FROM CENTRAL TEXAS DURING LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

LISTED BELOW ARE THE GREATEST AND 2ND GREATEST 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS ON RECORD IN SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA.

12.44 INCHES DURING JULY 24TH AND 25TH OF 1933 FROM THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL STORM.
10.44 INCHES DURING APRIL 12TH AND 13TH OF 1991.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL COMMENCED DURING THE EVENING OF MAY 13TH ABOUT 6 PM CDT. THE DAILY TOTAL FOR THE CALENDER DAY OF MAY 13TH TALLIED TO 6.71 INCHES. REMARKABLY...THE DAILY TOTAL RECORD FOR THE CALENDER DAY OF MAY 13TH REMAINED UNBROKEN AS THE RECORD STILL STANDS AT 8.12 INCHES SET DURING MAY 13TH OF 1908.

When everyone loses... everyone wins?

2008-04-09T10:36:00.000-07:00

It could be. I guess diversification might as well work with worldwide portfolios just as it works with yours.

Shoot for the moon. Even if you miss you'll wind up in the stars. And other stupid things I don't like to hear people say.

2008-03-18T18:04:00.000-07:00

Yes, I'm in that kind of mood. And, no, you won't likely end up in the stars.

First, there aren't any stars between Earth and the moon. And if you shoot for the moon with enough velocity to actually reach a star, you'll be so crushed by your impact on the moon that you won't enjoy it. In any case, if you did arrive safely you might at least be disappointed because there isn't even a Chili's or Starbucks or anything to do. And, if you did shoot for the moon and miss, apart from what could be described as a less than mediocre effort given the large target size of the moon, somewhere enroute to the stars you'd likely explode under the lack of spatial pressure and float around as little frozen bits of flesh. So, if you shoot for the moon, know what you're doing. And if you don't know what you're doing, pursue more modest goals.

I suppose these things aren't really stupid. Well, some of them are, but mostly they're ignorant, which people hate to be called, but really has to be better. Ignorance may not be bliss, but at least it doesn't know any better. Stupid knows better. Here's a statement that I saw recently on a truck bumper:

If you keep buying imports, then where will your children work?

That's a question riddled with many deep concerns that I don't want to address. But I do think it's appropriate to say this: there will be jobs. And more importantly: there will be better jobs than many present now and certainly the ones now disappearing.

Now in America we see more and more young adults going to college and more and more young adults getting multiple or advanced degrees. What I don't see is these young Americans taking their college degrees onto the assembly lines at factories and into the heat and sweat of iron mills. What should likely be seen as the co-triumph of the American economy and educational system (in that low-tech and low-paying jobs are less being needed in America because they are continuously being replace by better ones) is probably too often misinterpreted as an educational and economic dysfunction.

For an explanation into the deeper issue we might be better served by comparing the current economy with one of the greatest feats in the history of the American economy: the assembly line itself. I doubt Henry Ford worried much that his welders and upholsterers would revolt because of any sort of trade imbalance.

"Too much unfinished steel coming in and too many car frames going out," or "Who's paying for all this finished upholstery with unfinished fabrics?" the grumbling workers might ask.

Of course not. They understood quite quickly that they, as was the whole company, were better off by reducing the scope of work they were trying to accomplish. In a sense, they actually got more done by doing less (more of less, more or less...). And everyone profited. Greatly

So we seem to have a trade imbalance in America. Of course we do. We buy cheaper, lower-tech goods from other countries. The same other countries that are buying our more expensive, higher-tech goods. I wonder if the man driving the truck complaining about import and export "imbalance" ever wondered why most of the world uses American-developed software and whether or not that is good for them. Or why Americans rarely go abroad to study but internationals routinely come to America to study and work.

We have many one-way trade deficits. That won't be resolved until we trade high and low-tech goods at equal ratios with all nations. And that should not happen. We will never export coffee to Kenya or rubber dog poo to Hong Kong, but we may continue buying these things from them. And very likely they will continue buying things from us of much greater value that they aren't yet able to produce themselves..

Only if all our trading is in deficits outweigh the trading income are we in danger. But even such imbalances often correct themselves. Like the declining dollar itself, which appears to substantially weaken the American economy, actually implores other nations to buy more of our exports--boosting the economy--because it would be foolish of them not too.

But maybe if the dollar weakens enough we'll start to see low-tech, low-paying jobs come back to America! Really I don't want that. And I don't think the truck driver wants that either. Just like I don't see the truck driver's concern as stupid. I just hope he's ignorant.

Thou shalt not kill: eat vegetarian

Another paraphrase, but no real commentary this time. Jen may disagree with me on this (it would be the first time), but I just hope this guy isn't waiting for his vegetables to die and rot before he harvests, cooks, and consumes them. Ok, so that one is stupid. Am I the only one who thinks that in response to the idea above it's worth questioning whether vegetables have any more or less soul than animals? Ok, so maybe I am.

On contextualization

2008-02-29T20:08:00.000-08:00

I don't often find this a suitable medium to discuss theology directly, but contextualization has been on my mind recently. In short, contextualization considers translation of the gospel message across cultural boundaries; assuming that my understanding the gospel of Jesus is naturally skewed my Western context then I must understand the appropriate context in which someone from another culture and native worldview must learn to understand Jesus the Christ. [random context article 1, 2]

This is all very interesting, and not unlike what must happen when you learn a new language, but one problem persists: if I must learn less and less of my culture (and be freer and freer of it's ways) to become more like the Jesus of the gospel I wish to communicate, then it follows logically that I learn less and less of my culture to understand the Jesus of the gospel, who is the Christ. (Or vice-versa, whichever you prefer.)

And if that's true then it seems that my mission awareness should not only include a cautiousness at conveying my native culture's worldview with the gospel but also an amazement that the Jesus of the gospel transcends our inability to comprehend him. So I wonder then how much context is too much for missions if Christ wants less and less from us in personal devotion. Not that context is bad, but let us learn in our ministry to be more aware of Christ, of ourselves, of others, and, mostly, of Christ, so that others may know more of him as well.

How not to land an airplane

2008-02-26T14:37:00.000-08:00

I can honestly say that although most of my students have made landings like this, they've all gotten better as their skills improved. I hope this guy gets better.

Sometimes things should be seen...

2008-02-12T19:50:00.000-08:00

Like math, or at least this girl's math-like representation of culture. Also, check out her book. Then again, I'm a bit biased, being that I only understand the math I can visualize.

And what should you care? As a child I spent countless hours pouring over the flags of the world entry in my parents' Britannica instead doing my math homework. Seems like I wasn't the only one. At least make sure you look at the list of flags that get failing grades.

That's a very nerdy thing, grading out national flags. But so is my early valentine and new favorite book, transit maps of the world. Oh well.

And then some people just like to make lists of things seen in the theatre that should most likely be seen again (as do others), among many lists, but I digress (which is difficult).

Oh, and speaking of movies, it sees that Rambo has seen considerable death-linked inflation. Over 2 kills per minute!

Oh, and it seems that looking good at work isn't such a bad idea. I guess what you see is what you get.

30 books in 2008, a Lenten resolution

2008-02-05T20:43:00.000-08:00

Whatever that means. What I have in queue so far:

Blink: the power of thinking without thinking (complete)
The Bottom Billion (in progress)
Secrets of the Baby Whisperer (in progress)
A Declaration of Interdependence: Why America should join the world

Likely to be soon added:
Bowerman and the men of Oregon (recommended by a friend)
The Lord of The Rings (which I've read each of the past two winters all six/three books)
Oh, and the ESV Bible (in progress)

Discounting the multiplicity of books both in the Bible and the Tolkien series, I'm currently at Nine (those count as 1 and 3, respectively). Any suggestions?

What a great idea!

2008-02-05T20:23:00.000-08:00

Seems like some people think you shouldn't give away a good job interview for free. So, how valuable is your time?

The Washer, Part III

2008-01-30T08:02:00.001-08:00

While listening to my favorite radio show a few years ago I heard that the Friday after Thanksgiving was a good day to go to the DMV, and now that I had a reason to go I decided, why not? Well, the OMV (Louisiana's DMV) was closed Friday so I went Monday morning, and the lines were empty. But getting a replacement, or duplicate as the *dup* at the top of my license indicates, is not as easy as it would seem.

First, I was asked if I had any form of identification on me. Normally I would say, No, that's what I'm here to get, but remembering a valuable and interesting experience as I tried to board an airplane with an expired license last July, I offered my pilot's license, which does not expire, as a valid Federal identification card.

Of course, the ladies behind the counter at the OMV had never seen such and were suspiscous. I would be too; here's a smiling young man with cash and all the necessary information and a photo-less green card claiming that he lost his driver's license. Why should we trust him? Getting the license ended up being the easiest, and most pleasurable, part of the remaining experience. And I digress, so let me return to the story of the washer.

The previous day, Sunday afternoon, I decided to take my receipt to Best Buy and pick up the items we purchased. I walked to the front kiosk, handed the employee my receipt, and proceeded to wait as the appliances were brought to me. Within fifteen minutes I had learned that the favorite past-time at that kiosk is tracking on the security camera certain women who walk through the front doors.

So I wait, and wait, and wait, and wait, and within thirty minutes learn that although the dryer I purchased has been easily found, the washer itself is more difficult to find. And not for lack of effort. Several employees, even one who is off-duty, were employed in the tracking-down of my missing washer. Being able to watch that pursuit on the security screen, between tracking incoming customers, confirmed to me that several of the Best Buy employees were on my side.

But not all were on my side. As it turns out, the service professional who placed my order on Wednesday night did not in fact order for me the washer and dryer pair that she sold me. What she ordered for me were two dryers. Now this was of certain irony, being that I now owned 1 bad washer and 3 good dryers, 2 of which were presently in my posession. It took no SAT scholar to understand that I preferred the washer over the second dryer and the off-duty employee, the most astute of the lot, quickly inquired into the situation with a few calls on the telephone.

What we learned is that the Bossier store (the closest) did not indeed have any washers present, nor did any of the warehouses. In fact, the next expected delivery from the warehouse or distribution center would be over two months later. And this is when the entire process got even more ridiculous.

What was offered to me was that the nearest store (Greenville, Texas) has the washer and it could be delivered to the local store and the department manager would call me when it arrives. Satisfied that this was the least painful route, and interested to see what Best Buy did to resolve the situation, I left the conversation at that and went home to pick up our dirty laundry and bring it to a commercial washing facility. Twenty dollars in quarters later I arrived home with all loads washed, but not dried, and very tired. I then proceeded to dry all loads in our new dryer, which was a slow but enjoyable process.

Handicapping the race in 2008

2008-01-29T21:52:00.000-08:00

is something that I won't do here.

I'm about as much a pundit as I am Democrat or Republican. No, I'm not a Libertarian either. But as Giuliani appears ready to drop out and endorse Senator McCain I am beginning to feel confident about my feelings towards the current candidates. And feeling is probably the right word because it seems that picking the President is about as easy as picking stocks, except that I can pick multiple stocks and I'm confident that more will be good than bad.

So, my feelings lead me to these preferences in this particular order, for no particular reason:

McCain, John
Hillary, Sir Edmund (deceased)
Obama, Barack
Rigby, Eleanor
Huckabee, Mike
Cleese, John
Romney, George (deceased)
Miles, Les
Romney, Mitt
Paul, Ron
Clinton, Hillary

The Washer, Part II

2008-01-29T07:59:00.000-08:00

So it's been a while since I began this story. I've forgotten much of it, but I'll try and make it worth your while to read. As I remember, I left with our four options. We could repair the broken washer, replace the broken washer with a like model, replace the broken washer with an advanced model, or dump my son's college fund into a commercial washer one quarter at-a-time. Actually, we had offers for used washers, but some of these were delayed (we'd still be waiting on one) and we didnt' think that we could wait very long. Not with dirty cloth diapers in the house.

So we took advantage of our situation and the Thanksgiving weekend sales adverts and went washer/dryer shopping. We realized that although the dryer was only 8 years old it might be a good time to buy one of those as well. Most sales essentially had you getting one unit half-off when you buy the set. Not as good a purchase as buying each item individually over time(waiting 5 years until it breaks and then paying full price for a dryer is a much better purchase than half-off now) but not an entirely bad deal either. We looked at like models (the low-end washer) and some of the high-efficiency front loading washers as well. These use much less water and electricity and claim to use as little as 1/3 of each compared to standard top-loaders. That was an enticing benefit, seeing as how much washing we get done.

So after some looking around we decided to pursue a pair of front-loaders at Best Buy (of course, dryers are already front-loaders) and decided that this was a good pursuit. If we end up saving in utility costs as much as advertised then we'll get back the price difference between washers ($300) in one year. That, and a generous offer from a relative, made this decision our preferred. Later on the same night we first looked at the washer I went back to Best Buy with a friend to purchase the combo. I should be able to purchase the units on Wednesday (prior to the mad holiday shopping rush) and pick them up Sunday or Monday, which seemed reasonable.

While waiting at the service desk to finish the order I dropped my license into a crack on the countertop. Apparently the countertops are large wooden layers that are no longer than 8 or 10 feet and bound together very tightly by large bolts with many washers. Despite the many washers, the gap between the adjacent pieces is large enough to slide a driver's license into. Not surprisingly, these washers place enough force upon the bottom of this gap to seal the countertop at that end (and no, you can't simply pull or use leverage to open the gap) so that my license is now consumed by the countertop into a gap too small to fish out from the top and almost non-existent at the bottom. And I am resigned to leave the store, late-at-night, several RewardsZone Dollars richer, several hundreds of dollars poorer, and minus one Louisiana Driver's License.

Fun with numbers

2007-12-20T11:57:00.000-08:00

A lot has been said around the NFL this year about the great season being had by the New England Patriots and the absolutely abominable season of the Miami Dolphins. Many wondered would we see the improbable: a team finishing 16-0 and another at 0-16 team in the same season. More reasonably, people have wondered what is more likely: whether the Patriots will win all sixteen or Miami will lose all sixteen. All interesting scenarios aside, what interests me most is how likely is it that a team could win or lose all of the games they play in one season. Some would have you believe that in competition as balanced as the NFL, it is sometimes luck that keeps a team from regression towards the mean. I can't say I disagree with that entirely.

If we assume that the Patriots are the best team in the NFL by a considerable margin (let's say the probability of them winning any single matchup is 95%, an unreasonably high number) then it still isn't very likely for them to proceed undefeated. With a 95% chance of winning each of sixteen games, this team still only has a 44% probability of winning all sixteen games. Likewise, if the Dolphins are that inferior to every team (or at least every team on the schedule) then they likewise have only a 44% chance of losing every game.

But consider that if a very good team that has a 3/4 chance of winning any single game (and randomness aside should have a very good 12-4 record) has only 1% chance of going undefeated (do the math, and that's assuming that this 12-win team isn't really a lucky 9-win team) and that should awaken us the awe of an undefeated season. If that doesn't amaze you, consider that when you bump the probability back up to 90% for each game, the likelihood of that team winning all 16 is under 20%.

And that's not taking into account home-field advantage and the equalizing effect of weather. It might be most reasonable to see a 16-game schedule as strata of opponents. I don't know how to divide teams as such but if the opponents were tiered into 4 categories of 4 each, with the Patriots' likelihood of winning at 95%, 90%, 85%, and 75%, the chance of winning out on that schedule is now less than 9%.

So as the Patriots push forward towards 16 wins we may do well to appreciate that the Patriots are quite good, as is any team that wins so many games, and also that if the Dolphins defeat them this weekend (which is a quite unlikely scenario) then maybe we should remember... that it isn't too unlikely.

What's been going on

2007-12-14T20:36:00.001-08:00

It's been a busy week. I'll get back to the story later, but first an observation from work, then two things overheard at different clients. It seems reasonable that the acumen of an accountant is inversely proportional to that accountant's personality.

But that may be a stretch. For sure, I know I heard these things while at work:

That lady must be an underwriter or something, she had no personality

Those boys down in Leesville think wrasslin's real and space program's fake

The Washer, Part I

2007-11-29T21:35:00.001-08:00

This story won't be as funny as any written by Jerry Seinfeld or Larry David, though in many ways our travails seem similar to watching their shows. And the saga is not over, though it may be soon, but since it has begun, let me also:

About a week ago our washer broke. While working I got a call from the lady that washer was making whirr-whirr-whirr noises when it should have been making the swushy-swish-swushy noises and that the lights were flickering. She didn't know what to do, and neither did I, but as any good husband I know that the answer was just leave it alone, don't worry about it and I'll take care of it when I get home.

So I get home and I turn on the washer and it's making a host of clicking and whizzing noises and lights are flashing everywhere. Well, not actually. But the agitator is not cycling (and it's in the agitator cycle, I know my laundry!), the machine sounds like a car starter is dying, and the lights seem to be surging with each set of clicks and whizzes. (From now on I'll switch back to calling it whirrs, since whizzes are something I'll teach my son when he's older.)

So I stare at the agitator, myself not yet agitated and the clothes wet and motionless, while the clicks and whirrs begin to slow and eventually stop. I turn the knob to the spin cycle and the load continues. I don't know if those clothes were truly clean, but nobody complained vocally. At least not to us. But at least I know that the washer isn't entirely broken. Only some part whose price is probably inversely proportional to it's size and weight (and I expect it to be small and plastic) has malfunctioned or died. And why shouldn't it? The washer has seen eight good years!

That night, as we're eating dinner with family, perusing the paper adverts, we see that washer/dryer pairs are being sold over the Thanksgiving/Black Friday (by the way, I'm entirely disappointed that Black Friday is now a holiday and that it's named such) for a more than reasonable discount. Furthermore, we realize that a suitable replacement for our washer is not an insurmountable cost. Indeed, probably around $300. And we got scrilla rolled up in our pillowcases, so we know we can float $300 for a new washer.

Well, the last part isn't true, but the next morning I did have a wonderful conversation with the lady who answered the phone at a local appliance repair shop. It would be a week before a house visit could be made to determine the cause of the problem. That would cost $60. If I brought the device in the the shop (I really didn't desire lugging the washer) it would be cheaper, but the shop guy is also the house call guy and although he could look at the appliance during nights or weekends, she didn't expect it would be seen any sooner. But she was entirely helpful and pleasant, the latter often going for more in my book. And helped me decide that after the likely $180 labor cost, cost of ordering the part, and cost of waiting a few weeks for the ordered part to come in added up to what was likely to be the price of a new machine (at this point I had given up any desire to repair the device myself, expecting the damaged part to be extremely small, plastic, and expensive), the washer would probably still have some other part break in the near future.

So that seemed to take away option 1. Repair is out. In come options 2, 3, and 4. What do we do? Do we buy a like model, around $330? Do we opt for the advanced, high-effeciency, front-loading model that costs around $660 but expects to use 1/3 the energy and 1/2 to 1/3 the water? Or do we tackle Best-Buy's lure and grab the front-loading combo at $990, this weekend only, four-day sale, buy now or you'll be sorry later, you'd better not pass this up deal and chunk out our working but now-unloved matchless dryer? Obviously option 4 has a lot of that propagandizing appeal to it.

So what do we do? How do we decide? Who do we ask for advice? Should we listen to them? (Being honest, sometimes I ask for, but do not take, advice).

Don't rain on my parade

2007-11-21T10:57:00.000-08:00

I like the Chinese strategy of solving problems, though I'm not sure I find these to be real problems.

Have you seen Amazon's new Kindle?

2007-11-21T06:20:00.000-08:00

Uggh. That's all I can say for now. Illuminating, arousing, and starting an e-reading revolution? No, just a splendid example of great concept turned into poor product, that's what the kindle is. Maybe I'll have the stamina to comment further later. For now, I'm simply disgusted.

And people seem to think A-Rod is a moron

2007-11-17T10:30:00.001-08:00

well, Alex is apparently smart enough to pick the right friends and advisors. When it comes down to what to do with your money, I think I'd follow any personal advice Warren Buffett gives.

Using Mankiw's principle #4 (people aren't that stupid), New York schools begin to provide incentives for achievement

2007-11-17T10:18:00.000-08:00

and I think it's a reasonable idea. Consider the tradeoffs: get what you already have (poor, underachieving students) or risk very little (what really is the cost of 15,000 cellphones and the minutes given as a reward?) The only real risk I can see is the liability involved in giving phones to these kids. And while I don't think it will have overwhelming success (I'm really more interested to see what it will do) I don't think it will be ineffective either. And really, what is the cost? Think about this objection and you tell me whether this fellow has watched the video below:

“You engage in learning because it develops you for future activities, because you are investing in yourself for a future reward,” she said. “What this is doing is instead creating an immediate tangible reward that will obscure that.”

Do you think these kids see development for future activities as their reward? Do you think many of these kids view long-term goals as tangible? It may be that creating a system of performance and reward for these kids will help establish the idea that long-term performance yields long-term reward. That would be a great accomplishment.

New news is no news

2007-11-14T09:44:00.000-08:00

Eliot Spitzer is giving up on his quest to grant driving privileges to illegal aliens, but he says he's not giving up.

Learn below in five minutes that everything you learned in a full semester is both true and worthless: or a deconstructionist view of economics:

Men still from Mars, women still from Venus

2007-11-11T20:08:00.001-08:00

But apparently they engage in free trade. And I always assumed economists in bars were just there having a drink.

Unrelated: this piece makes me long to visit Buffalo and see her people. But not in winter, and I don't really want to stay long.

Murphy and his friends

2007-11-05T19:01:00.000-08:00

must be frustrated to know so much yet know so little. What good is it really to know that the worst is inevitable but not be able to stop it? Or what use is history if, as Hegel states, man learns from history that man learns nothing from history? Well, I can't answer that question, but I'm pretty sure that you can learn a lot by reading The Smithsonian. And if paying for, or even reading that much magazine, is unappealing to you then I'm still quite certain that you'll enjoy this short piece about the laws of human culture. (Though Heisenberg himself might disagree....)

Some things just don't make sense

2007-11-03T21:21:00.000-07:00

A road I often drive turns from a busy street to a neighborhood street after crossing one of the major roads in our city. After crossing this intersection the two lanes reduce to one lane. To aid that reduction, yellow stripes are painted through the right lane identifying it as non-drivable. Shortly thereafter the road officially moves from two lanes to one, but this time the left lane is removed through signage that indicates the left lane merges into the right. To successfully, rather legally navigate this road you must enter by the left lane and shortly thereafter transfer to the right lane (which should be empty since it was previously non-drivable) before the left lane vanishes.

Now I know that these markings are intended to give order to the flow of traffic and inform drivers of a condition (lane reduction) for safety. But that intent doesn't make sense of the poor application. Another senseless situation that has been sticking out in my mind as is this effort spearheaded by the governor of New York to grant driver's licenses to illegal aliens. (here, here, here). This discussion was a topic at the debate last week and is sure to be a topic for months to come. The discussion will remain as a political power struggle, but as a rational choice for public policy there seems to be little to discuss. The benefits of issuing a driver's license to illegal aliens seem to include proper identification and the assumption that traffic accidents will be reduced, however neither of these arguments float.

Proper identification for illegal aliens is a benefit to all people and state issued identification cards are the most reasonable method to ensure this process. Of course, each state issues identification cards without driving privileges already. Maybe the debate should center more around identification privileges and not around driving privileges?

But that's the push by NY governor Eliot Spitzer, who argues that unlicensed drivers account for a large number of traffic accidents and that granting driving privileges to unlicensed illegal aliens will reduce the number of traffic accidents. How much more simple could the solution be? Or is this not really a solution and merely a fruitless lane shift?

Let's start this discussion from the front end. Why aren't these illegal aliens pursuing legal residence? As legal aliens these men and women are privilege to such. Certainly there is much nationalistic opposition to all immigrants, but there is little loss and great gain for illegal aliens to enter the legal residence and naturalization processes. I should assume that these immigrants are either uninterested because there is no need (or accountability) to validate their residence status or because there are political blocks to that end. In either case it makes no sense to give illegal aliens partial privileges for residence.

Are these aliens licensed to driver in their home nations? Can they not use these licenses to drive in America? Maybe they should be able to do such, just as any visitor may do on vacation.

Do driver's licenses make drivers safer? The formal training and testing that accompanies a driver's license should make an illegal alien a safer driver, but what about those who fail the driving test? Will they stop driving? Safer driving is the implicit effect of Spitzer's plan, but is there any data to support this idea? The only situation I can see where this works is if unlicensed illegal alien drivers are causing traffic accidents because they are evading pursuit. Granting a license to these drivers would help create fewer situations where risky or reckless driving seems beneficial to them.

So what is an appropriate thing to do? Can granting driver's licenses to illegal aliens make the roads safer? It may be that such a privilege will create a sense of ownership or care for driving safety that may not be present in some of these drivers. That would be a safety benefit, but that benefit would be greater if these drivers were legal in car and home. In any case, it seems that Spitzer's plan is avoiding the problem to create the solution. Much like switching from the left to right lane on a single-lane road we seem to be on the same path as we were when we started, we just jiggled our feet a little. I don't see this driver's license hokey-pokey providing any real benefits to any American citizen, natural, alien, or illegal.

Is there a pot of gold at the end of In Rainbows?

2007-10-19T22:14:00.000-07:00

See, that's the sort of tripe you get for free. Were you actually paying to read piece of journalism you'd get real writing. So what are people paying for real music when they have the choice to pay whatever they wish? Apparently, close to normal price.

Although the idea is that you can decide what you want to pay, most people are deciding on a normal retail price with very few trying to buy it for a penny.

I should remind you that reportely a band receives $1-2 per album sold, so Radiohead has made at probably five times normal revenue on albums sold (minus costs, which can't be over 50%). As for a musical review of the new Radiohead album, I don't have that yet. But I do like it very much. And I think you would. Several people who have listened to my album have liked it quite a bit, so you should give it a try. The most it should cost you is 45p, plus whatever your credit card may charge to convert pence to pennies. And you don't have to feel wrong about paying no more than that. If Radiohead had wanted you to pay more then they would have set a price floor. So why have so many people paid a "fair" price for a nigh-free album? Hmmm... well, maybe most Radiohead listeners are doves. But more on doves later. For now, two telling quotes from my favorite Radiohead fan (since my second favorite fan can't yet decide if he likes the band):

Why pay four pounds when you can get the album for free? and also she was thinking [I] should have paid more for In Rainbows after listening.

What Will U.S. Air Travel Look Like in Ten Years?

2007-10-18T06:38:00.000-07:00

A Freakonomics Quorum, and a great read. Interestingly (maybe more so to me since I know a little more about flying than the average air traveler) few of these experts share similar opinions on the future or solution of air travel.

Nerds, get out your towels

2007-10-18T06:21:00.000-07:00

and wipe up your drool. Now get online and check out this great census tool.

[freakonomics]

If you've read this far...

2007-10-14T18:58:00.000-07:00

I don't know exactly what that's supposed to mean. But I suppose if you've read this far you have some affection either for reading or getting. Since there's usually nothing to get from what I write, I expect that you've read this far because you simply enjoy reading. Or you've been tricked. But if you've been tricked, you'll probably feel compelled to read the next few sentences. And if you love reading, or if you're like me and you like reading and want your children to love reading, then you'll like this New York Times article on parenting Mission: Making a Love of Reading Happen. It's a good read.

[More on reading and thinking from the Desiring God blog]

How come the world is multivariate when you can only make one choice at a time?

2007-10-10T20:44:00.000-07:00

That's not really the question at hand, but it might as well be. The very smart Justin Taylor has written an interesting piece in response to my friend who made the popular statement that he will not vote for Rudy Giuliani should he win the Republican Party Presidential nomination. (My friend is also very smart and, by the way, referred to me as a venerated authority on college sports.) This idea stems in part from Minneapolis pastor John Piper (he is undeniably venerated, and an authority on many issues) and his stance on what he calls one-issue politics.

In short, Justin Taylor argues that by making the right choice you could be making the wrong choice. In length, that argument entails discussing that the evils and goods in this world are not always balanced and that not all decisions are, nor should be, easy to make. But read less from me and more from Justin Taylor. And more from Denny Burk. And more from John Piper.

Black socks

2007-10-07T21:19:00.000-07:00

Have become a staple of my fashion diet and an eyesore to my wife. She complains about them all the time since I seldom exchange them for whites whenever I remove the shoes that hide them. And since I wear black socks most days, I wear black socks most evenings.

I thought she would just get used to it, but this has not seemed to occur. So now I think I will try a little bandwagon persuasion to see if she will continue to detest my black socks.

Black seems to be the sock of choice at many esteemed institutions for special occasions or a Saturday afternoon outing. Auburn, Washington State, Michigan, Arizona State, Georgia and Alabama, Colorado, Utah, Oregon and Fresno State, Cincinnatti, Texas, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Rutgers, and Stanford don't seem the least bit shamed wearing black socks with multicolored garb. How can so many smart people be so wrong?

Radiohead have made a new record

2007-10-01T20:45:00.001-07:00

If the best band in the world doesn't want a part of us, I'm not sure what's left for this business

It's rather interesting news (Time, NPR). While there has been much debate amongst nerds about whether the changing music industry is better or worse or unchanged (and debate about the debate, since that's what nerds do--that and throw around words like Pareto efficient) there has been no debate that the music industry is different today than it was ten years ago.

And in ten years it may be drastically different again if large enough bands like Radiohead (who have the best band name ever) continue to produce albums without the help of record labels. Prince has given records away and Trent Reznor has asked you to "steal his music" (though in fairness, it isn't actually stealing). Now Radiohead has taken a step further in asking you to name your own price when downloading their new album. The economics nerds will certainly go crazy over that. And certainly will the Radiohead nerds.

Take a look at the site yourself (and download what promises to be another excellent album, if you wish) or at least take a glimpse at the images below.

Feel free to tip and is honesty the best policy?

If you aren't using

2007-09-30T20:34:00.001-07:00

Google Reader to sort through your blog subscriptions, you're missing out. Aside from the ease of use and functional utility everyone expects from Google, who wouldn't want graphs like these?

geek, extraordinaire

2007-09-27T20:31:00.000-07:00

That should be my title, if you're ever looking for one. That's what my wife tells me, and I believe it well enough, but reading what Apple has in store makes it seem all the more clear. Not so much because of what Apple has in store, but moreso because I'm excited.

This should probably be an embarrassing thing to admit, but I'm excited about the new version of Mac OS coming next month. Now that you can't find the current version (10.4.x) for sale at the Apple store it seems apparent that 10.5 is coming very soon.

A few days ago Jen and I looked at a preview video of iWork, Apple's productivity suite. It's very cool and makes Microsoft's Office 2007 improvements look like cheap frosting on dry, crumbly cake. And at $80 for the suite it makes the Office pricetag seem even more outrageous.

And then there's VMware Fusion, which I'm very excited to try out. If you know anything about computers then you know that Mac and Windows are very different. If you know a little more about computers, then you also know that for a few years now you've been able to run Windows on new Mac computers. If you're slightly more clever (and willing to do more work) then you may be successful getting Mac to run on a native Windows machine. All that means that if you're a low-tech geek then you can do anything on a Mac and if you're a high-tech geek then you can have fun with Mac on anything. But with VMware's Fusion you can do anything on any Mac, any time and anywhere. And that's very, very cool.

This is the first time I've ever gotten excited about software, or at least the first time I'll admit such. I've been excited about music releases, new books for class, video games (sometimes), and movies but this is a first. I guess that makes me a geek, extraordinare.

Is it worth moving your car to a new parking meter to save a quarter?

2007-09-25T21:47:00.000-07:00

I wondered this today as I visited a client in downtown for what was supposedly a short visit. Not wanting to dump too many quarters in the meter, I fed the pole sparingly and needed to run down twice to re-up my ante.

Each time the adjacent meter had some time left on it and my meter had expired. And it was no small amount of time either--25 and 45 minutes--so I did what I decided any rational person would do. I moved my vehicle to that meter and supplemented with an appropriate amount of change.

Then I wondered if it was worth it to start my vehicle and move it to the new meter position. Is it possible that I would spend more in gas starting and moving the car than I would save by pumping coins into the meter? Assuming that I had not actually been paying the wrong meter, saving 25 minutes saves about $0.25, or about 1/11th a gallon of gas. That's 0.091 gallons in savings, but it seems entirely likely that starting the engine costs the same or more.

This question is more circumstantial than it appears, given that vehicles with larger engines use more gas at startup. Drivers of these cars are usually also less concerned with the fuel cost of operating the vehicle (or else they would buy a vehicle with a smaller, less powerful and more fuel efficient engine), in part because the total cost of the vehicle is higher. Contrarily, drivers of vehicles that consume less fuel also pay less for the vehicle they drive, so it seems that whether you should move your car to save $0.25 or $0.50 depends as much on the type of driver you are as it does the cost of the fuel used to make the positional change.

Of course I'm unable to find any real idea how much it costs me to start my car and back it up 12 feet. I'm sure it's under $0.25 since each mile driven has cost me $0.18 so far. That's in the Honda V6 engine of my vehicle.

Can the BCS be fixed?

2007-09-23T19:56:00.001-07:00

This question of course will be asked, and answered, every year until the BCS is actually fixed, or some new acronym assumes top rank in the bureaucracy of college football, but since I haven't written any run-on sentences (much less actual blog posts) in some time I feel that I should make some public comment.

Paragraph two should begin the reasons for a BCS change. The reasons are manifold but the most obvious are the lack of clarity in the crowning a national champion and the fact that every other NCAA sport uses a tournament or olympic-style championship system (including the other NCAA football divisions, which I've blahgged about here.)

So can the BCS be fixed? Probably only when pride and money move over, which will not be soon, or when we have a legitimate contender left out of the championship game enough times to create an irreversible stir. Remember that this happened in 2003 when USC won a share of the national title despite not playing in the championship game and 2004 when Auburn was undefeated but without the chance of playing for the title when USC played Oklahoma (both undefeated, as was Urban Meyer's Utah and now-fan favorite Boise State). And it's possible, though unlikely, that four heavyweights (USC, LSU, Oklahoma, and West Virginia) could finish this season undefeated. That would be enough of a stir, I think, to cause an immediate BCS amendment (for 2008). But what we need is a permanent fix.

A common suggestion is a simple four-team playoff. This would solve most of the problems and add a few new bowls (and bowl revenue), but this really only delays more anger and conflict. It would have seemed to work last year, pitting favorites Ohio State, Florida, LSU, and Michigan against each other, but simple reflection shows this to be a false solution. Remember that these teams had already faced each other previously in the year (Ohio State and Michigan in the final game of the year) and that LSU only gained its rank because Arkansas lost in the SEC championship game. An Arkansas win would have kicked Florida out (last year's national champions) and would have likely re-matched Ohio State and Michigan. Both of these teams lost bowls. Michigan lost handily to USC, which was ranked 5 in the BCS and clearly one of the elite. So the headache continues, but don't forget that this BCS solution would last year have only pitted teams from two BCS conferences in the championship. The other three conferences would have none of that.

The null hypothesis (or second null, I suppose) is the 64-team tournament bracket, but this is obviously too large since only 120 teams play I-A football. A 32-team bracket may work, but this would be 5 games more to win the championship--an impossibly difficult task. In any case, certain teams would require an off week as a benefit of the top-ranking and incentive to make the season interesting but even a 24-team playoff with 8 teams taking a free week leaves 5 weeks of playoffs.

If four is too few teams and thirty-two is too many then we're left with eight to sixteen teams to play for the national championship. Since it seems reasonable that some teams deserve a free week in addition to their top seed we're left at twelve teams, four weeks, eleven games, and one champion. But not all problems are yet solved.

This reduces the number of bowl games drastically (from 27, I think, to now 11) and decreases revenue substantially for teams until drastic restructuring occurs. Since schools use bowl money to fund football it only makes sense that television revenue from the playoff tournament is divided among the conferences represented in each game, each participant taking an equal share of the games value. This works well since the winning team then contributes more money in the next matchup. Conferences then could (should) distribute this money across all teams with bonuses to the teams that played in the tournament.

Certainly this format leaves out smaller teams and smaller conferences, which are unlikely to have a presence in the tournament most years. It may be possible to create a format that guarantees each conference's champion a tournament birth as a play-in should they not meet the requirements for tournament selection, but with 11 conferences that would mean as many as 6 play-in teams in some years and that would be a tricky system. In that case, a 5-week 24-team playoff seems most desirable.

In any case, the season must be shortened so that conference championships occur earlier. With a maximum of ten regular season games, 4 weeks of playoffs would not be any more games than most bowl teams play presently. Even with 10 games +/- a conference championship the twelve team playoff tournament seems both a feasible and reasonable alternative to our current system.

So why hasn't Myles Brand thought of this? Actually I'm sure Myles Brand has considered this and many other alternative formats. The real question we want answered is why hasn't he taken the necessary action? Is it money or power? He's the head of the NCAA. No journalist, team, or conference has power over him because they are members of his organization. He can, if he wishes, simply enact whatever is necessary to crown an appropriate champion for Division I-A college football.

So maybe instead of talking about how we think the college football champion should be decided, petition me to the NCAA as a replacement to Myles. I promise I would use that power for good and a more clear picture of which team is really the best in college football.

Because real life is always better than stuff you can make up

2007-09-18T06:18:00.000-07:00

A Gamestop manager decided to creative an incentive for good grades by not allowing kids with bad grades to purchase games. Apparently this was not in line with the corporate policy of making as much money as possible.

But what's so wrong with video games? Well, apparently playing games for three days straight is not good for your health.

/.

Jokes for nerds

2007-09-16T05:14:00.001-07:00

Here are two adaptations of common jokes which I'm sure you won't enjoy (at least, not as much as I do.) If you're not offended by the jokes, get a little nerdier by reading Greg Mankiw's editorial on an international carbon tax. (And if you're particularly nerdy, see if you can pick out the sentence in his article that carries the same implied theory as the first joke.)

Joke #1: Two economists are walking down the sidewalk when one spots a twenty-dollar bill and stops to bend over and pick it up. His friend wisely slaps his hand and says, "If that were a real twenty-dollar bill, someone would have already picked it up."

Joke #2: A few statisticians are in a bar prospecting their odds at dates for the weekend when Bill Gates walks in. One of the statisticians becomes very excited and exclaims, "Hooray! On average, we all just got richer!"

A post on chance, on the off chance that it will make Myles mad

2007-09-04T19:40:00.000-07:00

Now how likely is that? I gave Myles a hard time about Greg Maddux's apparent tough luck after he suggested that a recent stretch of well-pitched but seldom-won games is a rather common event for Maddux and quite uncommon for every other pitcher. I thought that having such a stretch (in which Maddux threw 20 strikeouts, 2 walks, 1 win, 2 losses, and 3 no-decisions with a 2.57 ERA) should not at all be uncommon in any pitcher as great (or lucky) as Maddux who has been able to endure such a tenure in the major leagues.

Steven Dubner recently wrote about the Texas Rangers scoring 30 runs in one game and how unusual he thought it was that in setting the Major League record for runs scored the Rangers actually scored in only 4 of 9 innings. That means that in the course of one game this team failed to score in more than half of all attempts (5 of 9) yet still scored the most runs ever in a 9 inning game. How odd is that?

Well, maybe not so odd after all. What is more unusual, he suggests, is our ability to predict randomness. On a similar topic Steven Levitt muses that for the Kansas City Royals to tie a record losing streak is actually not that noteworthy. Though a worthwhile read I'll summarize it for you: we expect too much uniformity out of randomness. That's why we expect the Royals, who we don't expect to win very many games, to win at least one out of four. It doesn't matter that they'll end up averaging one out of four for the year--we expect one out of every four. Furthermore we like to think that when they've lost 15 or so consecutive games that this is not a normal behavior but an unusual circumstance.

Likewise we expect that when the Rangers post thirty runs in nine innings they would do such in a "more orderly" manner. We just don't tend to like random events and feel much more comfortable with uniformity. If the Royals should win one out of every four games but haven't won in twelve contests, then they're due to win the next four. Although we expect Greg Maddux to lose well-pitched contests from time to time, we don't expect a string of such contests to happen so close together.

Levitt suggests this: predict the results of 25 coin flips, then flip a coin 25 times. Compare your prediction versus the actual results and see how comfortable you feel about randomness. Maybe then you'll have a little less surprise, though no less empathy, for Greg's tough luck. Or maybe not.

Something worth checking out

2007-09-04T19:29:00.000-07:00

Reading the freakonomics blog always seems to turn up something interesting (much like reading their book), but indexed is one of the better sites I've seen in a long time. Who can turn away from such an appropriate use of Venn diagrams?

In weird news

2007-08-28T05:23:00.001-07:00

If you can't control the world around you, you may still legislate the world you cannot control. China now intends to make it illegal for monks to reincarnate in Tibet.

MR

Christianity in the American church has died

2007-08-08T20:40:00.000-07:00

Maybe you knew this already. Contemporary culture rejects many ideas of the past. That Jesus is the focal point of the church is (as it has been becoming) one of those ideas.

Probably you've seen the signs that the American church--which is to say the corporate church-going desire of many Americans--has strayed from Jesus as the Christ and toward many other principles and ideas. A few days ago this realization came to fullness as I read the mail. That day I was urged to attend the life journey church, which meets at local theatres. Having been around audience-driven churches (like this) before, nothing initially caught my eye. As I continued to read the flyer several important ideas stuck out. Read them with me:

Think church is boring and outdated? Yikes... so did we.

We're Different... "I laughed, I cried, milk came out my nose!"

83% more fun than anything else you will do on Sunday

The first is that church is merely entertainment. Or at least the appeal here is nothing more than entertainment. Probably this church and all church-goers will tell you that it is much more, but very little on this advert displays motivation for attendance that is not based on entertainment.

We gladly serve complimentary [starbucks]

Not that I'm against Starbucks coffee... but complimentary generally means that it compliments--or is in addition to--something else. The message of that statement is comfort, ease, and pleasure... which may indeed compliment entertainment, but also does little to dispel the notion that entertainment is the focus when churchgoers convene. And for what do churchgoers convene?

If you gave up on church a long time ago, this invitation is for you

The Life Journey Church... The perfect place for imperfect people.

What to expect at [t]he... [c]hurch: People taking God seriously

Though it makes little sense in light of the former two sentences, the last statement is the only one on the advert that ostensibly mentions anything religious. Other statements may be intended to produce religious or moral sentiment, but what really is this--and what really is this church doing?

As best I can tell this is the modern American church. And if a group of morally-motivated people who have no connection other than their general disconnect with the religious affections are meeting together to seriously take on God (who has not yet been defined) in a manner which is entertainment-motivated, then Jesus has indeed left the building and the lordship of the Christ has little bearing on modern life.

How unfortunate, since these are the sort of men and women whom Jesus readily sought to pull out of the doldrums of life. Hopefully something they see at this church will help them again entertain the thought that Jesus still seeks them for that purpose.

But that may be hard to remember when he is no longer the purpose of convention.

Thank you, Coach

2007-07-29T18:49:00.001-07:00

This year one of Waco's greatest coaches retires. Next year one of Waco's greatest will be missed. But not by us. Yesterday we, who were a ragamuffin and ragaknot collection of former runners of this coach, celebrated in a small and large way the great career of Bill Farmer, Midway High School track and cross country coach. And what a great experience it was for me, and for all of us.

Bill Farmer coached cross country beginning in 1981 and has coached the sport, in some form or fashion, for the past 27 years. Now the head track and cross country coach for the girls teams, coach will retire after one more year having brought his team to the state championship meet 11 times in 28 years. Though his team never won the title he did have teams finish 2nd, 3rd (twice), and 4th, and had seven men finish top ten at the state meet. Though remarkable, we thought this was the least of what he did. Certainly he would agree.

This morning, as I was being exhorted by Paul to open my heart wide I could not help but reflect on this man. His steady demeanor was marked by an unflinching care and deep love for his runners. A runner's promise on the track had little bearing upon how coach treated us. His slowest runner and fastest harrier were to him teammates worthy of equal attention. Likewise, his most difficult and most disciplined athletes were to him both kids in need of equal love. He displayed a gentle and balanced spirit, save the time he exploded at a runner's parents and dates as the runner sobbed on the course at the district meet. His affections toward us neither waned nor needed any ignition.

This man we loved back because he taught us much ourselves and life and yesterday I was honored to be among the 47 former kids of his who were able to celebrate his career. In that crowd were significant accomplishments including state champions (individual cross country and track), All-Americans, bank Vice Presidents, partners in law firms, etc., but none of these meant anything to us. None of the men present flaunted their accomplishments and none of the less accomplished runners looked with awe at the men grown out of the pictures hanging by the locker room door beside each of the school records. (Previously, every one of us had stared with awe at the scrawny likes of Todd Copeland and Paul Stoneham.) We had a single bond and a single purpose. Yesterday we were united together as 47 men honoring our coach just as much as any of us were united in purpose any of the crisp mornings of the district meet*.

Many events, good and bad, I have forgotten already in life. Some are remembered after a friend calls and tells the story he can't believe you forgot. Some are remembered looking among old photographs and the various lore of past days. And some are not forgotten. Coach has not been forgotten--not by us, his harriers. Not by us, his kids. He said what he needed, which was sometimes nothing at all, but we always understood what he taught. In the biographical book prepared for the celebration we had opportunity to remark about our experiences and what coach meant to us. Some who had run in college remarked that he was the best coach they'd ever had. I remarked that he taught me how who you are means more to your team's success than how fast you are. In the end we all ended up saying the same thing. I guess we just paid attention to what coach said. And we remembered. And we will not forget. Thank you, coach, for running us hard, coaching us well, and teaching us how to live.

[*I've had much to reflect in these two days and of the thoughts I've had is that the realized unity of the church of Christ must be a great event, if the realized unity of our group is any true harbinger. Being that the good on this earth is of the favor of God and usually little more than the shadow of his righteousness, the culmination of humanity into the fullness of the age to come will be some experience beyond any possible description, and one which may possibly take an eternity to experience in its entirety.]

What you can learn for $0.21

2007-07-19T06:03:00.000-07:00

I stopped to buy gas at the Valero (which I always think is supposed to be Vaquero) and also picked up a drink before making my next stop for work yesterday. I, probably like you, usually pick up a 20 oz drink because it's easy and normal. When I tried to buy a 20 oz Dr Pepper for $1.29, the girl at the counter offered a 1-liter (33 oz) for $1.11. Knowing I didn't need that much I decided that I would get a 12 oz can, but then the counter-girl countered that after tax that can is $1 (or at least very close) and I relented and paid $1.21 for 33 oz of Dr Pepper. For those of you scoring at home, I essentially paid $1 for the first 12 oz and $0.01 each for the remaining 21 oz.

Here's what I think I learned for $0.21 that I probably wouldn't have noticed otherwise. The company (I'll be generic since I don't know which company is most instrumental in determining the price) is more concerned that you buy a unit of product (I'll be generic here too, since most soft drinks are priced this way) than how much product is in that unit. Likewise, you and I are more concerned with consuming a unit of product on the scale of our desire more than matching up individual preferences to fit the scale of our budget. We, and the company knows this, will make decisions to purchase more because of ease and habit (plastic, screw-top is better than aluminum can, and who really needs 33 oz?) than small fluctuations in price. In specific terms, this product has some level of inelasticity, since price (along a small scale) has little to do with our decision to purchase the product.

Also, and maybe more importantly, the product is in some manner of speaking worthless. The first 12 oz I bought cost $.083 each, but the remaining 21 oz cost only $0.01 each. How much we buy doesn't matter, so long as we buy. This also means that how much we buy doesn't affect the cost in any appreciable way. It seems to me then, that the cost of producing this product is all in marketing and delivering this product and not in the product itself.

Did I gladly buy nothing yesterday?

Art and the Gospel

2007-07-17T19:11:00.000-07:00

I've got theories on everything. Most of them I keep inside, knowing that the sane don't care to know them and the others won't listen anyway. Many of these theories are built around disciplines about which I don't really know a lot. I guess this is related to my desire to be an economist, which is essentially a job that employs you to think about other peoples jobs and ideas. And I very seldom speak in such a public manner about the gospel, mostly because I'm quite afraid to speak untruth, but I think we can learn a few things about the gospel by learning a few things about art.

A few weeks ago my wife, son, and aunt-in-law (and I) went to the Dallas Museum of Art. This is a fun event and though I know little about art I'm neither profoundly emotionally discomforted nor extensively frustrated by my lack of interpretation when observing art. In most cases, I just like it.

But that's not to say it is easy to view art. After just a few hours viewing American, European, and contemporary art, rushing past the African and Asian exhibits, I've got an overwhelming headache that is simply attributed to over-stimulation from all the exhibits. This, and the time constraint that is attached to any out-of-town event, is really the reason I rush past the African and Asian exhibits. I don't have any energy left to contemplate them and these exhibits deserve the most thought.

What is always interesting to me is observing my rational and natural response to such exhibits. I counter thoughts of isn't this quite primitive with the understanding that all art is a cultural representation and my misunderstanding of these "primitive" pieces is really my great misunderstanding of the cultures they represent.

Really, this is what causes my headache in the galleries I can attend. I'm constantly, though subconsciously, trying to interpret these pieces in light of the cultural context (which I know a little better) but this rapid interpretation and appreciation (for which 30 seconds is too short and 2 minutes is too much for my brain to handle) is really more than I can process. If I can't really appreciate art from the cultures I best know (because I really don't have a great understanding of cultural history) then how can I really appreciate art from cultures I don't understand?

I've never seen the Jesus video, so I don't plan to make any sweeping statements about that evangelistic effort, but I know that many people who support this effort and many efforts similar and dissimilar because they believe that Jesus transcends culture and therefore art about Jesus transcends culture. The first statement I believe is absolutely true, but the second statement I believe is absolutely false and... may essentially void some forms of the first statement.

Art, being a profound visual representation of culture and idea makes a great medium for the movement of ideas where speech and experience fail. But it seems to me that if I am ill-prepared to understand the historical and modern art of a people from across the world (or even across the street) then I am ill-prepared to create art to distribute to that people as a representation of the idea of Christ.

Even as that last sentence reminds me of my failure, I am reminded that an image of Christ, which may be portrayed adequately through such a medium, is not the fullness of Christ any more than the sixty-six books of the canon are the fullness of Christ. If these stories are no more than a shadow of the nature of Christ (within which the fullness may be reflected but not stagnantly depicted) then our best-guided efforts at evangelism must be understood to be at best a reflection of that shadow.

If this rambling has become too long, let me end with this. A friend at school in Minneapolis tells me of debates he has had with like-hearted (but obviously different-minded) men about whether the gospel can be represented in art--specifically in an untranslated or wordless video. In some manner this is brave, yet not brave enough, and I am not sure that this evangelism will persist when the breeze of the culture that brought it has passed.

Often I have listened or read of evangelistic efforts and wondered how many people became worshipers of Jesus, the Christ, and how many became worshipers of the culture that brought this idea that was presented. The evangelism of the gospel of Christ is no small matter (and one about which I hope that these open-ended thoughts are not confused with condemnation), but I suppose that a little more staring and contemplating of "primitive" art would do me good. And maybe my ability to reflect the gospel as well.

What to do if your 4th generation iPod gives you a sad face

2007-07-07T15:04:00.001-07:00

If you've already followed the sad-face instructions at Apple support, then maybe you should just shake it. Really, it worked for me.

[This may not work for video, photo, shuffle, and the earliest iPods]

Is 10mpg always 10mpg?

2007-07-07T09:52:00.000-07:00

Or to put it a different way, is the difference between 20 and 30 mpg the same as the difference between 30 and 40 mpg? Well, the difference is 10mpg, right? Maybe not. Let me paraphrase a Car Talk Puzzler to explain.

Buff Barry drives a rather big truck that gets roughly 8 mpg while his wife, Gentle Gina drives a Prius that gets near 50 mpg. Gina is interested in a new Smart car which gets almost 100 mpg* but Barry spoke to his mechanic who said that she doesn't need a new car and for a few hundred dollars he could adjust the timing and probably get Barry's fuel economy to increase to 10 mpg. Which should they choose?

[It should be noted that Smart makes electric cars, and is only used here because I couldn't think of a better car. Also, unless Barry's mechanic listens to car talk or is Matt Damon, it's unlikely he would really know the answer to this problem.]

The answer is that improving gas mileage from 8 to 10 is far better than switching from 50 to 100. This doesn't seem so, because we look at the values 2mpg and 50mpg and conclude that saving 50mpg is 25 times better than saving 2mpg. Think of it from this perspective: knowing that the average American drives 12,000 miles per year. If Gina drives that far in her Prius then she buys 240 gallons of gas. If she gets a new car then she gases up half as much and only buy 120 gallons of gas. Barry, on the other hand, is always at the pump. Getting only 8mpg, he buys 1,500 gallons to drive 12,000 miles. If his mechanic could increase his fuel economy by 2mpg (to 10) then he'd only purchase 1,200 gallons per year, saving him 300 gallons of gas.

So there it is. Increasing 2mpg for Barry saves him almost three times as much gas as if Gina increased her fuel economy by 50mpg. Interesting, but what does that really mean? That maybe the numbers are more important where we are least concerned. Tom and Ray give the Accord Hybrid a poor review because its fuel economy is much worse than the Camry and Altima Hybrids, specifically in the city. And while 7mpg is no small matter (average fuel economy is 27mpg for the Accord and 34 for the other two, 91 gallons per 12,000 miles driven), other comparisons may be lacking. Comparing four common trucks shows that apparently small differences in mpg are... well larger than they appear. The Lincoln Mark LT (Ford's luxury truck), Chevy's Silverado, the Honda Ridgeline AWD, and the GMC Sierra Hybrid average 14, 15, 17, and 17 mpg respectively. These small differences amount to 857, 800, and 706 gallons per 12,000 miles. Here 3 mpg difference in these trucks amounts to nearly double the 7 mpg difference in the hybrid cars.

So when is 10mpg 10mpg and when is it not? I don't know, but while trying to figure it out, read the government's suggestions on saving fuel.

Happy July 5th!

2007-07-05T08:36:00.001-07:00

It doesn't look like Tim got a mug

For whom the toll tolls

2007-07-04T18:25:00.001-07:00

Here is a great read from the NY Times about electronic toll monitoring and what effect that has on drivers, known or unknown.

[Sure, but the NY Times is a pinko paper, some of you might object. Well, I found this article through Greg Mankiw, and he's no pinko, so don't be worried that your voting habits will change from reading just this article.]

Now who can read that and not want to go study public policy?

When it comes to impulsiveness, I'm a zero

2007-06-27T21:50:00.001-07:00

I never have been one to make quick decisions. Much to the concern of my dinnermates, I chew my food endlessly before deciding I'm ready for the next bite. Much to the chagrin of my wife, I chew my thoughts tirelessly before responding in conversation. I never make rash decisions--though this confused my wife for quite some time as she observed certain actions that seemed unprompted. I'd never consulted her but instead had thought that scenario out ahead of time and already concluded what I would likely do.

But despite my specific reasons for being slow in decision-making, in the end I really just don't like quick decisions. My mental discomfort quickly moves to emotional and physical discomfort and I ultimately rationalize that impulsive or rash decisions shouldn't be made--at all.

But that really isn't important. That's just a preview for why I'm thinking about my next vehicle--one which I don't expect to pursue for at least six months--and one in which I want to enlist your help.

We realized last December that I need, or at least desire, a vehicle that carries more than two people, now that we have three. I suppose we could get by with my truck in a manner like those mind-twisting math problems involving rafts, rivers, monkeys, and bananas, all needing to cross (except the river, which is stationary in an odd sort-of-way), but in the end I want a vehicle that is sufficient for myself and my family. [Divert here for some monkey-math]

And I want to know what you think I should and what I will end up purchasing. At least this will make the car discover experience interesting, being that I've already got a frontrunner (which will remain nameless).

To help you a little, I currently drive a Toyota Tacoma (not unlike this) and Tigger and Swift both agreed that my next vehicle should and will be the Honda Accord.

I would especially like to hear BK's opinion, since I count his opinion on cars near equal to a grandmother's opinion on cookies.

If you've never wanted to own a Honda

2007-06-20T19:26:00.000-07:00

--which I understand is not a goal most people set for themselves upon graduation--then maybe this will change your mind.

And if not, then you're a dolt.

slashback

2007-06-14T20:34:00.001-07:00

I know you all are waiting to hear what I've been thinking about, so here are some musings I've had.

I heard a girl on the radio today reading websites and incorrectly using the word backslash when she meant forwardslash, or just slash. Normally I don't care about this, mostly because I'm as confused about the whole back/forward slash identity, but I knew this was incorrect because you just never hear the word backslash in a sentence describing a website. Looking up the definition, a backslash is "\", which is never used for a website, but this satisfies me little. Why is it that \ moves backwards when / also clearly moves backwards? Certainly, written by pen the / is a forwardslash and the \ is... well another forwardslash, just started from the top. Maybe the forward/back slash connotation is due to starting the cipher at the writing floor, since all written characters start and come back to the bottom of the line on the page. In that case \ would be a proper backslash. Then again, English starts several characters from the top and never moves backwards (or right-to-left) when written.

So then, what to make of all this? Let's just call them upslash and downslash since clearly one goes up (/) and one goes down (\)... but only when thought of from left to right. Hmmm, is there no clear end to this dilemma?

On the radio earlier I heard an advert for XM Radio 24-hour coverage of the forthcoming 2008 Presidential election. I'm definitely a fan of XM, but I am hardly a fan of 24 hour news. In fact I think 24-hour news is hideous (or terrible beyond words, as Tony Kornheiser would say) for its effect in American society. Twenty-four hour news has aided the demise of newspapers and, ultimately, intellectual thought in modern American culture. The internet gets much of the blame for the downfall of print media but the fall began much earlier. Who wants to read a story and be forced to form an opinion about culture and society on your own when the only choice you really have to make is which news product you would like to consume for your daily dose of prefabricated opinion?

Obviously we don't watch much tele in our household. But 24-hour coverage of the upcoming election got me thinking about past presidents and elections in my voting lifetime. I've made three choices and two in hindsight can be seen as the absolutely wrong choice. While Kerry v Bush still seems to be a losing battle either way, it is now obvious that my choice of Bush over Gore and Clinton over Dole were absolutely bad. Not that I care about making bad choices, but what scares me is the lack of useful information in making such an important selection. Voter misinformation is what the game is all about and I don't see how 24-hour dedicated news helps at all. Hearing the XM advert made me wonder if anyone besides Obama and McCain are trustworthy for running this country, running a business, or kissing my baby. I don't know, and I don't know that I'll get the necessary information to make this decision until spring 2010.

Misinformation--really market ignorance--is a remarkable phenomenon. I often think I'd like to go back to school soon and maybe I'd be interested in writing a very long article on the topic of market ignorance in public education.

Eight impressions about me

2007-06-12T11:46:00.001-07:00

thanks to Rafe for these:

1. Micah is very unlikely to ever change his hairstyle or any other personal routine.

2. When Micah says, “I don’t know.”--he really means: “I know, but you probably don’t.”

3. Micah is fascinated with the fine details of a hobby, vice, or situation.

4. Micah will wear the same size jeans until his death.

5. Micah almost always has an opinion but probably won’t share it in a group social setting.

6. Micah has a mysterious, recurring ink blot over his lip.

7. Micah doesn’t eat or drink fast.

8. Micah quite often smirks and chuckles when he looks at you. Don’t take it to be demeaning. If you had those bizarre and random thoughts popping into your head--you’d be smirking too.